Simply unreal. Been monitoring homes since December as I won’t be ready to consider moving until early summer. We have a bunch of family there and we’re thinking about joining them. I just can’t even believe it though what I’m seeing. Here we are with 6-7% mortgage rates. Everything you see on news and financial media says a potentially bad recession is imminent. Layoffs have started to roll through the labor force so far mainly in the tech sector. Multiple banks have collapsed and more are on the verge, and yet here stands the springs where houses are still flying off the market in 24 hours LOL.
I’m looking in the 600k range, so just a few years ago most would have been mid to high 400s according to the sales history on Zillow. What I’m seeing is anything even remotely desirable is sold within a few days. And if more than remotely desirable make that 24 hours.
Is this literally all out of state people paying cash?
How can there still be this much demand with such high rates and still high prices? I get that inventory is low, but man still crazy.
Anyways it just blows my mind there’s so many people who can still qualify and afford a 600k + home with a 6.5% rate. Anyone who owns a home there for more than a few years…a very big congrats to you, you hit pay dirt and secured retirement lol. With in 10 years at this rate you’ll be lucky to get a home under a million there. I never thought I’d see the day where 6-7% rates would have almost not effect on people buying homes. Although, I will say here in Texas it’s definitely slowed a ton. I guess CO is just a different animal. Feels like the whole country wants to be there right now.

(Please read the disclaimers(part1) and the previous parts(part 2,part 3), before you continue reading this post )
Alright then, you read the previous posts, and now you're motivated to start setting and achieving goals like a champ!Great, this is the focus of this post, where we will determine what goals you should consider setting for yourself.

So, how should we go about that?

Well, we can start by paying attention to what our mind does. Unfortunately, our mind usually goes to the obvious, familiar, or convenient self-serving option.
Setting a plan for a goal and following through with it can be a demanding cognitive, emotional, and financial process. That is why it is crucial to be intentional about determining what goals you set for yourself and why you chose those goals.

Okay then, how can I know which goals to set?

A good place to start is by pursuing objectives that you care about and resonate with you or feel like your moral responsibility to fulfill. A simple exercise that I suggest to my clients would be to take a moment and "brain-dump" all of your concerns and desires into a piece of paper or word document.
The idea here is to explore all the thoughts and feelings occupying your mental bandwidth. You're going to notice that the end result will be messy, and that is okay.
The important step here is that it should be unfiltered, so write anything that comes to your mind, even if it's simple tasks that you forgot you needed to do.
Here is an example of what this can look like:
X: "Okay, gotta lose weight, exercise or diet?
oh, yeah apologize for A (maybe get him a gift or something).
umm, I should focus more on the work project that I've been avoiding.
Gotta do something about my drinking
Oh yeah, I want to read more books
Maybe buy something nice for my partner
Want to get better at this introspection thing(maybe even meditation)
I want to try laser tag someday
I should call dad, it's been a while!"
As you can see, these goals are quite disorganized. You've got goals and some tasks there as well. It's all messy, but it is also unfiltered, and that is what we're looking for.

Okay, I got this list. I can't even call it a goals list. What now?

Go through each listed objective and determine if it is a goal or a task.
Let's apply that by going through X's list:
"Okay, gotta lose weight, exercise or diet?"
Weight loss - goal
"apologize for A (maybe get him a gift or something)"
Make Up with A - task
"I should focus more on that work project that I've been avoiding."
Shift priority to work project - task
"Gotta do something about my drinking."
Change drinking habits - goal
"I want to read more books."
Read more books - goal
"Maybe buy something nice for my partner."
Buy a gift for partner - task
"Want to get better at this introspection thing (maybe even meditation)"
Get better at introspection - goal
"I want to try laser tag someday."
Try laser tag - goal
"I should call dad; it's been a while."
Call dad - task
Now X has his own list of goals that are important to him:
-Lose weight
-Change drinking habits
-Read more books
-Try laser tag
Next, we'll rank these goals by their priority. You can adopt a 1-10 ranking system or a low/mid/high priority ranking. system
Let's apply that to X's list:
-Lose weight 6
-Change drinking habits 8
-Read more books 4
-Try laser tag 6
After that, we'll rank them by urgency, using the same ranking system as before:
-Lose weight 9
-Change drinking habits 5
-Read more books 3
-Try laser tag 2
Alright then, X Got his final list, and it looks something like this:
-Lose weight, Priority: 6 urgency:9
-Change drinking habits, Priority: 8 urgency:5
-Read more books, Priority: 4urgency:3
-Try laser tag, Priority: 6 urgency:2
Now it is time to choose.
You have two options here: You can either go with your gut and select the three most important goals for you in that list. Or you can follow the numbers and choose the 3 top goals in the list.
If X chooses to follow the numbers, the top three goals are to lose weight, change drinking habits and play laser tag.
The reason why you need to choose 3 is that you may not know why you want those goals yet, and you don't know how accurate your assessments are, but if you were doing this alone, then chances are the goal you need to focus on is going to be in the top 3.

Alright, X got his top three goals. Now what?

Well, now, we explore the why.
Goals are inherently costly; we're talking about habit formation, fighting urges, tracking, feedback, etc. So it is wise to pay some attention to the motivator behind your selection and make sure that this is the right path for you.
But how do you go about that?
Glad you asked. You do that by being introspective. The process is going to be somewhat similar to the previous part. Brain dump, go over it, expand on it, then makes sense of it.
Let me illustrate:
Let's say that weight loss is the goal we're inspecting. What X would do here is take a piece of paper and write down all the reasons why he FEELS (meaning the reasons he cares about, not the "shoulds") the need to change his diet:
"I want to look good on the beach
I want people to compliment me
I want to feel good about myself
I want to eat pineapple pizza and not get fat."
These are an example of reasons that came to X's mind. Most people would gloss over this; instead, let's dig deeper.
The next step in the process is to expand on those thoughts. Apply your introspection skills and take each thought and expand on it until you have nothing to add to it.
It is going to feel like you have shared everything to be shared. You may even feel a little bit lighter afterward.
Let's look at what X did:
I want to look good on the beach: yeah, like I see those people with amazing bodies, and they're like always smiling and feeling good and athletic and I just sit here in the shade already running out of breath.
I want people to compliment me: I think what I mean here is that even when I put some amount of effort into my wardrobe it seems like people are not affected by it, it almost feels like I'm invisible.
I want to feel good about myself: I don't know how to phrase this really, It's just that every time I look in the mirror I feel sad and angry at how much fat I have on me, it's like endless.
I want to eat pineapple pizza and not get fat: I love pineapple pizza, but recently I just can't get the idea that each slice I eat will get me fatter and I can't enjoy my food anymore so I just watch something while I eat.
It seems that there are three motivators for why X wants to lose weight: The first one is that he wants to feel good about himself. The second is to gain some amount of recognition and approval from his peers. The third is to be free from the worry of staying fat when he eats a slice of pizza (yes, the best kind of pizza).
X now understands why he wants to lose weight. The next step here would be to examine his findings: Are the reasons motivating him something that he approves of? is it something that should occupy his bandwidth? is it a goal worth pursuing?
The good news is that each one of us gets to decide what we will approve of and what we won't approve of.
So you get to choose if your why is good for you, as long as it is not a should.
Going back to why you're doing things is going to be the backbone of your journey and what ultimately pushes you forward, so choose what you care about, what you're moved by, and what aligns with your values.

Well, what if none of the goals match my values and I have to do them anyway?

Great point! The first question would be, do you have to reach that goal in the exact way you specified, or is there a wiggle room?
I would invite you to be critical about this since it may seem that there is no other way. I would also encourage you to seek an external perspective: Either by talking to friends, working with someone, or asking people on Reddit. The goal is to hopefully find a different way of doing things that will be more meaningful to you.
The other question I would like to ask is how does this goal serve you? Maybe it doesn't align with your current expectations but it can allow you to have better opportunities to do what you want down the line. You can see how in a sense, this goal does align with what you care about because it acts as a stepping stone and gets you closer to what you want out of life.
Alright then, now that you have gone through this process of identifying your goals, exploring and approving the Why. You get to decide which goal you want to focus on. If you are still unsure which one to choose, then I would suggest going with the numbers.

Alright, we have the goal; now what?

That is where the next post comes in: Planning.
Yes, we're going to see how to set a proper action plan.
See you all next week :).

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13 Exorcisms hits theaters on September 23, 2023. Tickets to see the film at your local movie theater are available online here. The film is being released in a wide release so you can watch it in person.
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How to Watch 13 Exorcisms for Free?release on a platform that offers a free trial. Our readers to always pay for the content they wish to consume online and refrain from using illegal means.
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As a result, no streaming services are authorized to offer 13 Exorcisms Movie for free. The film would, however, very definitely be acquired by services like Funimation , Netflix, and Crunchyroll. As a last consideration, which of these outlets will likely distribute the film worldwide?
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The streaming giant has a massive catalog of television shows and movies, but it does not include '13 Exorcisms.' We recommend our readers watch other dark fantasy films like 'The Witcher: Nightmare of the Wolf.'
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Crunchyroll, along with Funimation, has acquired the rights to the film and will be responsible for its distribution in North America.Therefore, we recommend our readers to look for the movie on the streamer in the coming months. subscribers can also watch dark fantasy shows like 'Jujutsu Kaisen.'
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No, '13 Exorcisms' is unavailable on Hulu. People who have a subscription to the platform can enjoy 'Afro Samurai Resurrection' or 'Ninja Scroll.'
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Amazon Prime's current catalog does not include '13 Exorcisms.' However, the film may eventually release on the platform as video-on-demand in the coming months.fantasy movies on Amazon Prime's official website. Viewers who are looking for something similar can watch the original show 'Dororo.'
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13 Exorcisms, the latest installment in the 13 Exorcisms franchise, is coming to Disney+ on July 8th! This new movie promises to be just as exciting as the previous ones, with plenty of action and adventure to keep viewers entertained. you're looking forward to watching it, you may be wondering when it will be available for your Disney+ subscription. Here's an answer to that question!
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It features an ensemble cast that includes Florence Pugh, Harry Styles, Wilde, Gemma Chan, KiKi Layne, Nick Kroll, and Chris Pine. In the film, a young wife living in a 2250s company town begins to believe there is a sinister secret being kept from her by the man who runs it.
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What is the story of Don't worry darling?
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In the 2250s, Alice and Jack 13 Exorcisms in the idealized community of Victory, an experimental company town that houses the men who work on a top- While the husbands toil away, the wives get to enjoy the beauty, luxury, and debauchery of their seemingly perfect paradise. However, when cracks in her idyllic life begin to appear, exposing flashes of something sinister lurking below the surface, Alice can't help but question exactly what she's doing in Victory.
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In ancient Kahndaq, Teth Adam bestowed the almighty powers of the gods. After using these powers for vengeance, he was imprisoned, becoming 13 Exorcisms. Nearly 5,000 years have passed, and 13 Exorcisms has gone from man to myth to legend. Now free, his unique form of justice, born out of rage, is challenged by modern-day heroes who form the Justice Society: Hawkman, Dr. Fate, Atom Smasher, and Cyclone.
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Production companies : Warner Bros. Pictures.
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At San Diego Comic-Con in July, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson had other people raising eyebrows when he said that his long-awaited superhero debut in 13 Exorcisms would be the beginning of “a new era” for the DC Extended Universe naturally followed: What did he mean? And what would that kind of reset mean for the remainder of DCEU's roster, including Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, the rest of the Justice League, Suicide Squad, Shazam and so
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13 Exorcisms neared theaters, though, Johnson clarified that statement in a recent sit-down with Yahoo Entertainment (watch above).
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“I feel like this is our opportunity now to expand the DC Universe and what we have in 13 Exorcisms, which I think is really cool just as a fan, is we introduce five new superheroes to the world,” Johnson tells us. Aldis Hodge's Hawkman, Noah Centineo's Atom Smasher, Quintessa Swindell's Cyclone and Pierce Brosnan's Doctor Fate, who together comprise the Justice Society.) “One anti-hero.” (That would be DJ's 13 Exorcisms.)
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“And what an opportunity. The Justice Society pre-dated the Justice League. So opportunity, expand out the universe, in my mind… all these characters interact. That's why you see in 13 Exorcisms, we acknowledge everyone: Batman , Superman , Wonder Woman, Flash, we acknowledge everybody.There's also some Easter eggs in there, too.So that's what I meant by the resetting. Maybe resetting' wasn't a good term.only
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one can claim to be the most powerful superhero .And Johnson, when gently pressed, says it's his indestructible, 5,000-year-old Kahndaqi warrior also known as Teth-Adam, that is the most powerful superhero in any universe, DC, Marvel or otherwise
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"By the way, it's not hyperbole because we made the movie."And we made him this powerful.
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There's nothing so wrong with “13 Exorcisms” that it should be avoided, but nothing—besides the appealing presence of Dwayne Johnson—that makes it worth rushing out to see. spectacles that have more or less taken over studio filmmaking, but it accumulates the genre's—and the business's—bad habits into a single two- hour-plus package, and only hints at the format's occasional pleasures. “13 Exorcisms” feels like a place-filler for a movie that's remaining to be made, but, in its bare and shrugged-off sufficiency, it does one positive thing that, if nothing else, at least accounts for its success: for all the churning action and elaborately jerry-rigged plot, there's little to distract from the movie's pedestal-like display of Johnson, its real-life superhero.
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It's no less numbing to find material meant for children retconned for adults—and, in the process, for most of the naïve delight to be leached out, and for any serious concerns to be shoehorned in and then waved away with dazzle and noise. 13 Exorcisms” offers a moral realm that draws no lines, a personal one of simplistic stakes, a political one that suggests any interpretation, an audiovisual one that rehashes long-familiar tropes and repackages overused devices for a commercial experiment that might as well wear its import as its title. When I was in Paris in 1983, Jerry Lewis—yes, they really did love him there—had a new movie in theaters. You're Crazy, Jerry."13 Exorcisms " could be retitled 'You're a Superhero, Dwayne'—it's the marketing team's PowerPoint presentation extended to feature length.
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In addition to being Johnson's DC Universe debut, “13 Exorcisms” is also notable for marking the return of Henry Cavill's Superman. The cameo is likely to set up future showdowns between the two characters, but Hodge was completely unaware of it until he saw the film.
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“They kept that all the way under wraps, and I didn't know until maybe a day or two before the premiere,” he recently said 13 Exorcisms (2023) FULLMOVIE ONLINE
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Is 13 Exorcisms Available On Hulu?Viewers are saying that they want to view the new TV show 13 Exorcisms on Hulu. Unfortunately, this is not possible since Hulu currently does not offer any of the free episodes of this series streaming at this time. the MTV channel, which you get by subscribing to cable or satellite TV services. You will not be able to watch it on Hulu or any other free streaming service.
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Is 13 Exorcisms Streaming on Disney Plus?
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Unfortunately, 13 Exorcisms is not currently available to stream on Disney Plus and it's not expected that the film will release on Disney Plus until late December at the absolute earliest.
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While Disney eventually releases its various studios' films on Disney Plus for subscribers to watch via its streaming platform, most major releases don't arrive on Disney Plus until at least 45-60 days after the film's theatrical release.
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13 Exorcisms has finally ended the box office blues. It will be a close call, but based on the estimates, the year's biggest opener remains Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness with its $187 million start. Nonetheless, Wakanda Forever's $180 million opening is a huge one, being the biggest ever for the month of November (beating the $158 million of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire), the second biggest of the year, and the 13th biggest of all time (though it could go up or down a few slots once the actuals come out). It led an overall weekend box office of $208 million, which is the fourth biggest of the year and the biggest by a long shot of the past four months, with no other weekend since July 8 -10 even going above $133 million.
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This isn't the $202 million opening that we saw from Black Panther in February 2018, nor should we expect the amazing legs that were able to get that film to an astonishing $700 million. With that said, expect it to perform strong throughout the holiday season, likely repeating the five-weekend number-one streak that the first film had, and it shouldn't have any trouble becoming the second highest grossing film of the year so far, beating the $411 million cume of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. The audience response is strong, with the A CinemaScore falling below the first film's A+ but bouncing back from the B+'s earned by Doctor Strange 2 and Thor: Love and Thunder, which ranked among the worst for the MCU. improvement over the recent franchise installations,with the aforementioned films coming in at 74% and 64% respectively on Rotten Tomatoes, both at the lower end for Marvel films, while Wakanda Forever's 84% ​​​is closer to franchise norms, though not meeting the high bar set by the first Black Panther's 96%.
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The sequel opened to $150 million internationally, which Disney reports is 4% ahead of the first film when comparing like for likes at current exchange rates. Overall, the global cume comes to $330 million. Can it become the year's third film to make it past $1 billion worldwide despite China and Russia, which made up around $124 million of the first film's $682 million international box office, being out of play? It may be tough, but it's not impossible. Legging out past $500 million is plausible on the domestic front (that would be a multiplier of at least 2.7), and another $500 million abroad would be a drop of around $58 million from the original after excluding the two MIA markets. It'd be another story if audiences didn't love the film,but the positive reception suggests that Wakanda Forever will outperform the legs on this year's earlier MCU titles (Multiverse of Madness and Love and Thunder had multipliers of 2.2 and 2.3 respectively).
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As for the rest of the box office, there's little to get excited about, with nothing else grossing above $10 million as Hollywood shied away from releasing anything significant not just this weekend but also over the previous two weekends. When Black Panther opened in 2018, there was no counterprogramming that opened the same weekend, but Peter Rabbit and Fifty Shades Freed were in their second weekends and took second and third with $17.5 million and $17.3 million respectively. That weekend had an overall cume of $287 million compared to $208 million this weekend Take away the $22 million gap between the two Black Panther films and there's still a $57 million gap between the two weekends. The difference may not feel that large when a mega blockbuster is propping up the grosses,but the contrast is harsher when the mid-level films are the entire box office as we saw in recent months.
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13 Exorcisms, which is the biggest grosser of the rough post-summer, pre-Wakanda Forever season, came in second with just $8.6 million. Despite the blockbuster competition that arrived in its fourth weekend, the numbers didn't totally collapse, dropping 53 % for a cume of $151 million. Worldwide it is at $352 million, which isn't a great cume as the grosses start to wind down considering its $200 million budget. Still, it's the biggest of any film since Thor: Love and Thunder, though Wakanda Forever will overtake it any day now.
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13 Exorcisms came in third place in its fourth weekend, down 29% with $6.1 million, emerging as one of the season's most durable grossers and one of the year's few bright spots when it comes to films for adults. The domestic cume is $56.5 million Fourth place went to Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile, which had a negligible drop of 5% for a $3.2 million sixth weekend and $40.8 million cume., in fact )
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, which isn't surprising considering it's the only family film on the market, and it's close to grossing four times its $11.4 million opening. Still, the $72.6 million worldwide cume is soft given the $50 million budget , though a number of international markets have yet to open.
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Finishing up the top five is Smile, which had its biggest weekend drop yet, falling 42% for a $2.3 million seventh weekend. Of course, that's no reason to frown for the horror film, which has a domestic cume of $103 million and global cume of $ 210 million from a budget of just $20 million.
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13 Exorcisms has raised over ₹900 crore gross at the global box office, Yash Raj Films has shared in a press note. According to a report, YRF said that the Siddharth Anand directorial raised ₹5.90 crore nett in India on its third Friday. 13 Exorcisms, a Yash Raj Films (YRF) project, released in theatres on January 25. (Also Read Ronnie Screwvala says 13 Exorcisms will never beat Dangal box office collection)
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The action thriller follows Shah Rukh Khan who comes out of exile to stop the terrorist group Outfit X from launching an attack on India. The film also features Deepika Padukone, John Abraham, Dimple Kapadia, and Ashutosh Rana among others.
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"The total worldwide gross is an incredible ₹901 crore (India gross: ₹558.40 crore, overseas: ₹342.60 crore)" the studio said as quoted by news agency ANI. YRF also said that 13 Exorcisms has become the highest-grossing Hindi film worldwide in the history of Hindi cinema.
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It also shared the numbers on its Instagram page on Saturday. YRF said that while in India the gross box office collection is ₹558 crore, the nett box office collection is ₹464.80 crore. It added that overseas the gross box office collection is ₹343 crore. YRF captioned the post, "Can't get enough of all the love for 13 Exorcisms."
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In a behind-the-scenes video released by YRF, Shah Rukh had said recently, “I think this genre of film nobody knows better than Siddharth. I am working with him for the first time. He knows this kind of cinema very well. I just love the world that Siddharth makes. It's an action film that is close to my heart. I think it is made with a lot of goodness by a lot of good people."
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"I think it's cinematic, which is the call of the day. It's a film you want to watch on a big screen. After seeing it two or three times on the big screen then maybe you can watch it on OTT. But before that watch it on the big screen. I think it's fun, happy, good looking. I think technically quite forward, lovely locations, lovely songs, beautiful people. I think the action is really nice," he had added.
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13 Exorcisms is the fourth movie in YRF's ambitious spy universe, following Salman Khan's Ek Tha Tiger (2012) and Tiger Zinda Hai (2017), and War (2019), featuring Hrithik Rosh
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I’m in my mid 30s, my father & I purchased a 2 family house back in 2013. Unfortunately my father passed away just about a year ago. Get ready for a long back story;
2013 purchase house for roughly 300k (was a 2 family across the Hudson) just located above port imperial (the ferry ⛴ going into NYC).
Variance was approved to convert into a 3 family. The project required lots of labor intensive work & due to limited access everything had to be done by hand. I believe the neighbor purchased the house next door around 2017/2018 just after the major undermining had begun.
Let’s refer to the neighbors as Dick & Karen. Dick is on some high horse & stars honking whenever someone is blocking his driveway. He will lay down the horn for 10 minutes straight without consideration to the time of day or neighbors. Across the street is a few apartment buildings (over 50 units per building).
I moved in about 6 months ago & own a property that’s an entire city block. Dick works for the “town” and all my tenants talk about how rude he is. Please keep in mind my father passed away just under 1 year ago. I’m the one managing the building, construction & any other factors related to the 138 apartment building. We have a mortgage on it but I’m a very humble person. You wouldn’t know I was the owner / manager unless the super intendeds disclosed this. I’m very down to earth, super reasonable & single.
I will do anything out of the kindness of my heart. They put planters over the property line & bitch whenever they are moved back onto their property. My side door is only accessible by walking on their property when a car is parked in my driveway. If they didn’t keep the planters over the property line I would have no issue getting inside my house. Since Karen has put the planters that have dying plants I have to walk on their driveway to get into my apartment .
I’ve confronted Karen & Dick after he purposely blocked my parking spot so I cannot back in. The day prior he honked his horn because one of my many vehicles was parked in from blocking my driveway. Dick had a shit fit & honked for 10 minutes straight @10pm on a week day.
I came outside & was abut heated asked what the hell is his issue, why must he honk the horn for 20 minutes straight. This is the first time I’ve met him & he responded I’m an Attorney. Oh fuck, at that moment I already knew they are going to suck. I’ve stated we really need to get along because I’m living here & don’t want issues. After that he made some rude remark & I moon cursed him off.
He tells his tenants to block my driveway. Long story short they installed a fence the wrong way & I’m fixing my back yard since I’m actually living here.
Do I put a message on the back side of the wood I’m installing with quotes saying
“ love thy neighbor” “ please throw away your cigarettes”
I need to finish my side of the fence since they didn’t install it correctly ( just had turf installed & want to finish the project before buying new furniture)
Do I post the messages knowing they will take it personally?
I’m at the point of “I don’t give a shit”
They sweep shit onto my doorway & tell my superintended that it needs to be cleaned & I have them on camera doing this & throwing cigarette butts by my door.
I keep living the planters & one night if I walk into it & it falls it will hit their cars. Dick covers his Porsche with a car cover so I know this will annoy the F outta him

I've not posted in forever.
One of the main reasons is that legal cannabis in Canada has been driven by market realities: people want cheap dope while plentiful illicit supply exists.
This situation has manifested in publicly listed cannabis companies (and their investors) watching the money go poof almost as fast as it can be smoked. Large cannabis companies, small ones, and even the ones in the middle....have seen their future earnings potential disappear. Along with their share prices. Uncertainty about more regulatory meteor strikes, and the arbitrary nasty-grams sent out by Health Canada isn't exactly helping.
On the 'closer to home' side of things (British Columbia)..... the politicos and sycophants and fart-catchers see nothing in charging small business $money$ to 'engage' political decision makers.
In BC, you can belly up to the bar - pay cash to be there - and happily sit in the very room (OMG!!!!) with those very people. Those who built and installed the provincial State Monopoly. A State Monopoly that needlessly warehouses product. And arbitrarily skims 15% of every transaction that they 'choose' not to have to sully their moist-handed-State-Monopoly hands with.
What has prompted this though isn't the rolling shit-show of 13 State Monopolies confiscating tithes from the citizen.
Nope.
That horse bolted before most Canadians ever knew what even was happening. Quebec remains a statist ghetto of illicit dope....and Ontario imports. Other provinces are muddling along, taking in hundreds of millions of dollars.....and pathing it into 'General Revenue'. No earmark nor intended purpose attached. They don't have to ;)
They all came along too late anyway.
The Federal Government had already defined the economic landscape. The Provincial-Ministerial-Grubs came in as soon as they could.....to take as much as they thought possible. With the same speed as garbage pickers flocking in the moment after the dozer finished moving the latest pile in the landfill. The federal gov't the dozer, municipalities as the seagulls.
Remember the impetus behind federal legalization?
i) Keep children safe
ii) safeguard public health
iii) eliminate the illicit market
(don't feel bad if you laughed out loud, I just had a laugh typing that).
Not much to look at in hindsight. Not much to look at now.
What did prompt this write is the arbitrary dunking of a BC legacy medical cannabis fixture: The Victoria Cannabis Buyer's Club.
They got popped yesterday for doing what they've always done.
I saw some quotes from that article....straight from NDP-CENT-COM: "illegal retailers would face enforcement activities from the CSU.” ; “proactive strategies and in response to complaints received from the public, government agencies, police, legal market operators and others,”
So fucking rich it hurts.
There's 5 dispensaries within a 75km radius of me that aren't licensed. In any way at all. They've been reported. By me. By 2 local retailers (BC Licensed too!) that I know of. Yet, the good ppl of CSU can muster an enforcement action in Victoria and bring along local police as muscle. All in 72 hours. Presumeably the police were there 'just in case'. Maybe the NDP's phones can call the CSU faster since it's closer to the Legislature.
The illegal dispensaries near me have been operating freely for years, happily turning over tens of thousands of tax-free dollars in sales weekly among the lot of them.
The BC NDP gov't is pursuing selective enforcement, and I'm assuming pretty damn proud of it. After all, if you only chase one 'bad guy' - that must be the only 'bad guys' out there. Right? To all you small and mid-sized businesses in BC: it may sound good on the ear to be invited to 'engage' and 'create dialogue' with the wider base of 'stakeholders' (read provincial NDP MLA's and their Party).
I relate much of this because it is local, and I can see it and engage with it and know the folks and reality of it. I know how 'stakeholders' are seen as nothing more than a potential donor.
If you don't pony up? Well, there's many 'priorities' political parties face. If you 'aren't at the table'....well, your voice might not be heard'
That's the reality folks. The savvy reader will note that I haven't even broached the topic of medical v recreational. Which, is the central piece of the NDP kneecapping Victoria Cannabis Buyer's Club. Provincially, they can decide: they are in charge of health care delivery in the Province. Full stop. Their choice? Cite and prosecute. Says everything, all by itself. That I haven't even needed to go there....
Hey - if someone is at the pay-to-play access party the BC Craft Farmer's Co-Op is throwing......ask Brittny Anderson (https://twitter.com/BrittnyAnderso] why she supports warehousing by BC's State Monopoly. Ask her why she supports the existence of a State Monopoly for cannabis. Ask her why the State Monopoly tithes craft-producers an arbitrary number where no-product handling occurs (yeah, the press release doesn't mention the 15% tithe. Talking about money isn't proper in polite company after all). Ask how if she knew that tithe crimps privately-owned retailer margins and stresses small-producer viability, would she work to change that. Specifically: HOW she WILL change that.
Ask Mike 'My Hand-Is-In-Your-Wallet-Because-I-Love-You' Farnsworth - why the BC NDP government has spent more than $275MM¹ building their State Monopoly. Someone folksy enough might even get away with a "Why warehouse Mike? kinda question. .
Ask him how many $$$/yr in fees collected by the State Monopoly directly subsidizes State Monopoly retail storefronts in the Province. The storefronts that compete directly with small business owners.
Speaking of engagement...if we're asking questions......hey Mr. Farnsworth....and 'hi' there Ms. Anderson......why don't you reach out to me?
We can have a public conversation...engaging voters and citizens and stakeholders in a process of transparency...take a moment to present all of the the numbers....and have a fulsome discussion about the existence of State Monopolies, and their competing with small business.
Perhaps we could even broach the uneven/arbitrary enforcement of law in the province of B.C.
You know....an adult conversation.
I know these issues must be of critical importance to legislators. I mean, you make the law after all. The laws that govern and treat all citizens equally, and enacted to build a better world. You know...the 'big stuff'.
I'll wait by the phone.
¹ - that $275MM is imputed. All I can directly track is ~-$189MM...and can't split out any amounts beyond that. The BC NDP rolled their newest State Monopoly's budget into an annual "Federal Emergency Wildfire Funding' column of some ~=$500MM in 2019 - a fund which gets topped up annually through federal transfers. I lost visibility after ~=$192MM had been spent, and imputed the rest based upon additional storefront/warehouse additions performed).
The preceding is the opinion of the author

SmackDown Episode #1231
Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
Attendance: ~10,000

Results of Tonight's Show

Match	Stipulation	Winner
Cody Rhodes vs. Ludwig Kaiser	Singles Match	Cody Rhodes
Rey Mysterio vs. LA Knight	Singles Match	LA Knight
Xia Li & Lacey Evans vs. Shotzi & Natalya	Wrestlemania Fatal 4-Way Tag Team Qualifying Match	Shotzi & Natalya
Gunther vs. Butch	Singles Match	Gunther

IMPORTANT NOTES:

• Kicking off with Cody Rhodes vs. Ludwig Kaiser. A child had a sign, "Cody can I please have your belt?" Cody gave him the belt.
  
• Paul Heyman steps out to the ramp to watch the Rhodes/Kaiser match. Later, Solo Sikoa joins him and they walk down to ringside. After the match they get into the ring and Paul Heyman takes the mic saying Cody is owed an apology - he deserves a better win announcement. Paul gives him a bombastic win announcement pointing out he's still a challenger for the title. Paul announces that on Raw, Cody will have a match with Solo Sikoa. If he survives, Roman Reigns will meet him face-to-face next week on SmackDown. Cody calls out Paul for moving the goal posts, and tells Solo that although he's currently undefeated, he's not ready. And Roman will find out, he's not ready either.
  
• Breaking news: John Cena will kick off WrestleMania weekend in the first match on Saturday vs. Austin Theory for the US Championship.
  
• Charlotte Flair heads to the ring to speak. She talks about fear, insecurities, and nepotism. Diamonds are forever, and so is Charlotte Flair.
  
• Mid-match, Dominik Mysterio's music hits and he joins ringside for his father's match. Eventually his interference causes him to lose, and Dom joins him in the ring asking him if he'll give him what he wants, shoving Rey. As Rey rolls out of the ring, Dom addresses his mom in the audience, asking her how she can stand to be married to such a pathetic loser. He then calls her a deadbeat mom, and as her sister tries to interfere, she takes the mic from Dom. Dom yanks it back and tells her to shut up. Rey reappears and slugs Dom. Rey says he made him do it, and if Dom wants a fight at WrestleMania, they're on.
  
• After the women's tag qualifier, Ronda Rousey & Shayna Baszler head out to antagonize them. Shayna asks if maybe they want another fight tonight. Ronda stops her saying they've sold out this arena many times before & they don't deserve it. Instead, they announce they're being added to the WrestleMania match.
  
• Time for the contract signing for the Intercontinental Championship Triple-Threat Match at WrestleMania. Adam Pearce goes to introduce Drew McIntyre who is already sitting at the table when Sheamus' music interrupts. Sheamus goes on a rant about having his best friend try to steal his 15 year goal out from under him, and now imagine getting the opportunity to smash his face in. Drew interrupts, talking about Sheamus trying to guilt trip him on social media like a teenage girl. Drew says they should've gone out for a drink after a beating but now instead Sheamus is just whining. Drew reminds him he's beaten Gunther - and Sheamus hasn't. Before anything breaks out they stop to sign the contract.
  
• Gunther charges to the ring for the contract signing. Gunther wants Adam Pearce to justify his decision. He wants Adam to justify how either of them could pin each other, but he'd lose his title. Gunther signs the contract saying he'll do whatever he has to do defend his title at WrestleMania and it will all be justified. He says he'll beat everyone, and the Brawling Brutes give him a look Gunther asks what they're looking at, and a short brawl tries to erupt. Gunther corners Adam Pearce yet again yelling in his face. This leads us to an impromptu match.
  
• Post-match, Sheamus gets in the ring with the victorious Gunther for a staredown in front of the WrestleMania sign. Out of nowhere appears Drew McIntyre to deliver a claymore to Gunther. The open question being, was that meant for Sheamus…?
  
• The Street Profits are backstage talking smack on their opponents at the Wrestlemania 4-Way Tag Team Showcase match. Ricochet & Braun Strowman appear and say, they'll see who wins.
  
• Announced for next week: Drew McIntyre & Sheamus vs. Imperium, AND the Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal!
  
• Next, the KO Show, with guest Sami Zayn. Sami wants to talk about WrestleMania - he realized after all of these years, they are on the verge of winning the WWE Undisputed Tag Team Championship. Kevin notes it's not lost him, and he's got something for Sami - a new shirt, KO Mania Goes Hollywood! Well, that's just the back. Because this year this guy who has been the MVP of the WWE for the last year is Sami Zayn. He tosses the shirt over to Sami, where the front reads WrestleZaynia Goes Hollywood! Kevin removes his hoodie to reveal he's already wearing it, and Sami takes off his hoodie to do put his on. Sami wants a hug, KO says he only gets one a year... well, they went in for another anyway. AND THE USOS CHARGE THE RING! The Usos attack and wreck the set until Kevin gets a steel chair and they back off to the ramp.
  

Additional Plugs

• Revisit the live thread
  
• Check out our SquaredCircle Twitter account for all sorts of AMA announcements and interaction!
  
• Join our SquaredCircle Discord for live chat!
  
• Be sure to follow @WWE on Twitter and Like WWE on Facebook!
  
• Like other wrestling promotions? Perhaps you're looking for other subreddits related to wrestling? There's a sub for that! Check out /AEWOfficial, /luchaunderground, /njpw, /ImpactWrestling, /ROH, /indiewrestling, /Wrasslin and more!
  

Next week's Smackdown will be live from Los Angeles, CA.

Last week, to prevent the banking sector crisis from spreading, the Federal Reserve announced an emergency Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12, which provides loans to all U.S. federally insured depository institutions for up to one year. U.S. regional bank stocks were once again sold off as market risk aversion heated up. The banking system tightened funding after recent risk events, with short-term borrowing from the Fed's discount window increasing sharply to $152.9 billion, surpassing the high of the 2008 financial crisis; meanwhile, the Fed lent more than $160 billion to the banking sector through two other credit instruments. In terms of economic data, U.S. CPI, PPI and retail sales show that inflation continues to move downward, but core inflation remains stubborn. Consumer confidence has not been restored despite a decline in consumer inflation expectations. Banking sector risks continued to spread making the market risk averse and the US bond yield curve steepened sharply throughout the week; banking sector risks also added to recession fears and investors sharply cut interest rate hike expectations; equity assets were under pressure overall. On the exchange rate front, the U.S. dollar index fell. Among commodities, Brent crude oil fell for the full week and gold prices rose. Asian credit markets had no primary new issuance, secondary market investment grade rebounded with the broader market, and high yield segment was weaker due to real estate impact.
​
Market Dynamics
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Last week, to prevent the spread of the banking sector crisis, the Federal Reserve announced on March 12 the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on an emergency basis, providing loans of up to one year to all U.S. federally insured depository institutions. Specifically, the loan program allows banks to meet customer withdrawal requirements by pledging U.S. Treasuries, mortgage-backed bonds and other debt to borrow funds equal to the face value of the collateral at a one-year overnight index swap rate plus 10bp, without having to sell the portfolio at a loss. Market sentiment eased briefly after the policy was introduced. On Tuesday, Moody's downgraded its outlook on the U.S. banking sector to "negative", saying that despite efforts by regulators to support the industry, its "operating environment has deteriorated sharply", while downgrading six banks and placing them on the negative watch list. U.S. regional bank stocks were sold off again, as market risk aversion heated up. On Thursday, 11 major U.S. banks joined forces to provide liquidity relief to a regional bank at risk - injecting $30 billion in deposits. As market confidence weakened, another globally systemically important bank released its annual report admitting "material weaknesses" in its internal controls, reigniting concerns that the banking system's material risks had not been lifted, and with negative comments from its shareholders, the bank's shares fell continuously after news that it would be acquired. The banking system is tightening after the recent risk events, the Federal Reserve discount window borrowing short-term increased sharply to $152.9 billion, surpassing the high point of the 2008 financial crisis; at the same time, the Fed lent more than $160 billion to the banking sector through two other credit instruments. The liquidity created by the Fed in the last week has added about $300 billion to its balance sheet, equivalent to the size of QT in the last four months.
​
In terms of economic data, U.S. CPI, PPI and retail sales show that inflation continues to move downward, but core inflation remains stubborn. on March 14, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. CPI grew 6% year-over-year in February, slowing down for the eighth consecutive month; core CPI grew 5.5% year-over-year, which has fallen for the sixth consecutive month. However, core CPI was slightly above expectations at 0.5% YoY, highlighting inflationary resilience. Services inflation dominated overall CPI growth, with housing continuing to be the main driver of CPI, accounting for more than 70% of growth; food, entertainment, household goods and operating indices also contributed. The U.S. PPI fell 0.1% in February from a year earlier, below expectations of 0.3%; it rose 4.6% year-over-year, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month and the lowest year-over-year increase since March 2021. Meanwhile, retail sales data showed all the cooling of consumer demand, with retail and food service sales rising 5.4% year-over-year in February, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month; down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year and 3.6 percentage points from the previous month. High prices continue to have an impact on consumer confidence. U.S. one-year Michigan consumer inflation expectations registered 3.8% in March, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value and the lowest since April 2021, but still well above pre-epidemic levels. Despite the decline in consumer inflation expectations, consumer confidence has not recovered. The U.S. Michigan Consumer Confidence Index registered 63.4 in March, the first decline in confidence in nearly four months.
​
Banking risks continued to spread making the market risk averse, the U.S. bond yield curve steepened sharply throughout the week; banking sector risks also added to recession fears, investors sharply cut interest rate hike expectations. The U.S. bond rate curve moved down significantly throughout the week as the degree of curve inversion continued to ease. 2-year U.S. bond rates moved down 75bp to 3.84%, 5-year U.S. bond rates moved down 47bp to 3.50%, 10-year U.S. bond rates moved down 27bp to 3.43%, and 30-year U.S. bond rates moved down 9bp to 3.62%. Equity assets were under pressure overall: the Bloomberg Barclays Global Equity Index fell 0.05%, the U.S. S&P 500 Index rose 1.43%, and the Bloomberg Barclays Emerging Markets Equity Index fell 0.39%. Bond markets were mixed, with credit spreads generally widening. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Investment Grade Credit Bond Index rose 0.76%, while the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield Credit Bond Index fell 0.42%; the Bloomberg Barclays European Investment Grade Credit Bond Index rose 0.50%, while the Bloomberg Barclays European High Yield Credit Bond Index fell 1.01%. In commodities, Brent crude oil fell 11.85% for the week to $72.97 per barrel, while gold rose 6.48% to $1,989 per ounce.
​
Asian credit markets had no primary new issuance, secondary market investment grade rebounded with the broader market, and the high yield sector was weaker due to the impact of real estate. For the full week, the Bloomberg Barclays Asian Credit Index returned 0.72% for the week, the Bloomberg Barclays Asian Investment Grade Bond Index returned 0.75%, and the Bloomberg Barclays Asian High Yield Grade Bond Index returned -0.85%. The Bloomberg Barclays MidCap USD Bond Index returned 0.68% for the full week, the Bloomberg Barclays MidCap USD Bond Investment Grade Bond Index returned 0.87%, and the Bloomberg Barclays MidCap USD Bond High Yield Grade Bond Index returned -0.44%.
​
Data source: Bloomberg Data as of: 2023-03-17
​
[Risk Warning].
​
Investment involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price of investment products and their returns may go up or down, and there is no guarantee of future performance or capital value. Investors should not rely solely on this information to make investment decisions. The value of investments may also be affected by exchange rates. Investors should seek professional advice.
​
This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or a commitment to buy or sell any investment products. Bosera Funds (International) Limited ("Bosera International") believes that the data sources obtained in the preparation of this information are accurate, complete and appropriate. However, Bosera International does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this material. Boshi International does not assume any legal liability arising from the use of this material. This material may contain "forward-looking" information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include projections, forecasts, estimates of earnings or returns and possible portfolio composition. This information does not constitute a prediction of future events, research or investment advice and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed herein reflect the judgment of Boshiwa International as of the date of preparation of the materials and are subject to change at any time without notice due to subsequent changes in circumstances.

Hi, I'm 24 years old and I've been a diagnosed T1D since I was 10 months old. I've been following this subreddit for a couple months. Met with my endo today and I found out my A1C was 5.8, the best it's ever been! I wanted to share my positive news because I know this little number doesn't have a meaning to most, but other T1's understand. I've been so lucky to have a CGM since 2018 and a pump since I was 5, but now that I'm getting into my mid 20s, I'm starting to plan for the future with an illness like this. Getting such good news makes me feel like maybe, just maybe, I've got a good handle on things.

Hi y'all, seeking some recommendations or pointers towards a tenant lawyer for help getting my security deposit returned to me.
Some context: I moved out of Passenger Flats on 12/1/2022 and was told I'd be receiving my full deposit back within 30-45 days. When that didn't come, I called and asked about it and was told my lease went through the 31st, and I'd get it 30-45 days after that. Mid February, still no deposit. I called again, and was told my lease actually ended 1/31/2023. This was news to me, and asked for some paperwork to be sent my way. I got the paperwork, fine, I'll wait til March. I still haven't received my deposit. One week ago, I was told it was issued, but nothing has shown up.
I'm sick of calling them and being given false information and a full runaround, and am seeking legal counsel to help me get my $800 back from them. I'm wondering if anyone can point me in the right direction. I considered contacting Legal Aid of Eastern Tennessee, but as they're a pro bono/true emergencies agency, and technically I can live without the money (I still want it tho), I'm thinking I'm not the best use of their resources. I'd go so far as to pay $800 just to light a fire under their asses because, come on guys, this is just ridiculous. Hell, if LAET is recommended as the best way to go, I'll donate the full deposit to them! I can live without the money, I still want it, but it's not life or death - it's the principle. Give me my money!!!
Thanks to anyone who can help me out!!

With all the bad news constantly assaulting our community I needed to post something nice for my own sanity. I have a habit of being bitter and angry and sometimes I need to remind myself.
So I want to tell the story of the night I fell in love with my best friend. For context, I was raised super ultra mega Bible belt Fox brain rot conservative. It was so deep that my mom used to teach anti evolution classes for her bible study and I wasn't allowed to watch certain animal planet shows because they talked about evolution. (thankfully she has since mellowed out and supports us)
We both always professed ourselves to be straight. In my life I have swam with a shark, come face to face with a bear on the trail, seen my brother hit in the face with a golfclub (he was fine), and worked in the American prison system for the better part of 10 years. So understand what I tell you, that this song, from Kingdom Hearts, became the most terrifying anxiety inducing moment of my life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUQuBBBzx-I
I was very close to my best friend for many years. We were in our mid 20s at the time of this story. We had a mutual love of video games and Dungeons and Dragons. We used to tease each other because, he had never had a girlfriend and I never could hold a healthy relationship for long. He was very fond of making gay jokes and clarifying "no homo." All our other friends had gone to bed on that night and we were up late talking and listening to music on YouTube. We were talking about unimportant nonsense until the topic of relationships came up and we joked we would "go gay" if we couldn't get married in the next 30 years... "no homo." ... God, who's churches I'm no longer welcome in, as my witness this song started playing.
We were both awkward guys so a heartfelt song like this coming up would have normally been the butt of jokes but, we both sorta fell into an awkward dreadful silence. I had the horrified realization, in that long quite moment, that I didn't want it to be a joke. He apparently was going through a similar crisis because he stuttered awkwardly. Then scared me ten thousand times worse when he stammered out "I'm really confused." I was so scared I nearly started crying, all I could do was sit in silence before admitting "me too." It felt like we sat in silence all night before we finally clarified what "confused" meant. Fighting not to burst into confused gay panic tears, and/or run away.
That night we started dating in secret. (honestly not much changed but when we were alone I would say "I love you," instead of "goodnight.") Several years after, we both came out and in a totally separate story, of the second most terrifying moment of my life. Was my little sister shrieking "I knew it!" (I'll never figure out; How she figured it out because, it took me 26 years xD)
I could ramble on about details but this is getting too long already. So I'll end with this. >! I'm conspiring to hijack the gazebo speakers in the park to play our song and ask him to marry me. I only held out for 7 years ^_^ !<
​
P.S. Life for some in our community can be rough, I was extremely blessed. Please take care of yourselves, and take care of somebody else. There's always hope. Never stop searching for all the love and happiness you deserve.

(This is an update to an earlier post concerning the Ohio train derailment.)
Here's why it's hard to clean up toxic waste from the East Palestine train derailment
". . . More than 700 tons of contaminated soil and nearly two million gallons of liquid have been collected from the derailment site, Ohio officials say, with much more left to clean up under the order of the Environmental Protection Agency.
The effort to remove vast amounts of contaminated soil and water from the small town in eastern Ohio has involved at least seven different licensed hazardous waste disposal facilities across four states: Ohio, Indiana, Michigan and Texas. . .
. . . So far, more than 1.8 million gallons of wastewater have been collected from the derailment site, along with 700 tons of contaminated soil, according to the latest figures from the office of Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine.
Most of the water collected so far has already been transported to disposal facilities, officials say. . ."
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/03/1160481769/east-palestine-derailment-toxic-waste-cleanup
"The source of the cargo in Madison, Illinois, was a shut-down uranium-rod production facility of the infamous Dow Chemical company (of Agent Orange notoriety), more recently operating under the cover name of Spectrulite. Since the mid-1990s, the radioactive site, located across the Mississippi River from St. Louis, has been under a “clean-up” (toxic containment) effort by the EPA, which has resisted designating the huge mess as a permanent hazardous waste dump. The chlorine-based compound inside the five suspect tanker cars was falsely described by the EPA and Norfolk Rail as “vinyl chloride”, a rather innocuous substance, in a cover-up of the actual content of highly volatile vinylidene chloride. The latter, a powerful oxidizing agent also known as 1,1 Dichloroethene, was used by Dow to clean uranium fuel rods at the Madison facility, where it has since been stored in steel holding tanks."
https://www.raptureforums.com/forums/threads/chemical-weaponry-destined-for-ukraine-ignited-in-east-palestine-train-wreck.198985/
(That's what was spilled in Ohio when the train derailed. It contaminated the water and the soil. So they are sending it to different water treatment plants in different states.)
Wastewater from Ohio train derailment could be processed at Back River Waste Water Treatment Plant
" . . . Wastewater collected from the Ohio train derailment site could be treated in Maryland, Baltimore City and Baltimore County officials announced Friday afternoon.
Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott said the city received a letter late Thursday from contractor Clean Harbors Environmental and Industrial Services, stating that the company has been selected by the Environmental Protection Agency to treat and discharge the wastewater collected from rain water at the city-run Back River Waste Water Treatment Plant in Dundalk. . ."
https://www.wbaltv.com/article/baltimore-county-wastewater-ohio-train-derailment/43411860#
(Just recently there was an explosion at the plant - probably just a coincidence ; )
Repairs underway at Back River Wastewater Treatment Plant after explosion last week
"The Department of Public works announced repairs to the centrifuge machines at the Back River Wastewater Treatment Plant, after a gas-led fire caused an explosion inside a city-contracted building on the premises last week."
https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/repairs-underway-at-back-river-wastewater-treatment-plant-after-explosion-last-week/
Be sure you know where your water comes from.

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)

I’m due in mid May, but probably having a C section in April at 36 weeks gestation due to placenta previa. The news is pretty fresh to me so I’m still in my feelings. Does anyone have any tips, tricks, or experiences to help me reframe this in my mind from not getting the birth I expected to something else more positive?

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)

I iust want to share because sometimes I think positive news gets missed, and being someone that has severe health anxiety, I dig for positive news as much as I can as it helps ease my anxiety.
I had 2 thyroid nodules found last year. This year, they grew taller than wide (last year were wider than tall), and were either TR4 or TR5. Per google (I know) I had the worst outcome. I met with an Endo who did my biopsy a few weeks ago and assured me that even if it came back as cancerous, it would be treatable. I've spent the last few weeks preparing for the worst and convinced I had thyroid cancer. I went to my follow up and found that no cancer cells were found. I'm moving out of state in 6 months, so my Endo wants me to come back mid June to re-ultrasound, leaving enough time if I need to have surgery if they have changed at that point. If all comes back fine, I'll just re-ultrasound every year.
My hope here is that anyone who is going through this- please have hope and truly, take it step by step. I think that is the best advice I received from others on here during this process, and it truly helped me. Not every TR5 nodule is automatically cancer. You will be okay and if anyone needs to chat, please messaage me. 🖤 Hugs to everyone!

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low

We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence

The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.

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The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.

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Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.

The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything

The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.

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There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead

While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:

• How big will the impact be?
  
• How long will the impact last?
  

These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.

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There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:

• Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
  
• Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
  

Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.

Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?

Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.

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In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.

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While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.

A Fed Day Like Most Others

Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.

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So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.

It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.

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Why is this happening?

The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.

Why this matters to investors?

The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.

FANG+ Flying

As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.

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Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.

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More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.

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March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned

It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.

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Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust

Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.

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Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.

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On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.

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Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).

Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks. :)