Wells fargo center seating chart

Philadelphia Flyers Mascot

2018.09.24 21:17 tenmanjonez Philadelphia Flyers Mascot

The home for the greatest creation known to man... GRITTY
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2022.04.18 22:04 Lanky_Mall_88 ~Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors LIVE [email protected]

NBA Streams. 76ers vs Raptors LIVE [email protected] NBA games, Basketball time, TV channel, FREE live stream showdown between Raptors vs 76ers at Wells Fargo Center Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on Saturday, April 16th (4/16/2022). The game will be broadcast live at 9:30 p.m. ET..
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2019.06.25 06:31 ChampagneSupernva Philadelphia Wings

The unofficial lax sports subreddit for the latest news and discussions of all things related to the Philadelphia Wings Box Lacrosse Team of the National Lacrosse League / NLL - The Wings are based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and play at Wells Fargo Center, home of the Philadelphia Flyers of the NHL
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2023.06.09 23:53 two_hearted_river Clean, blue flame only possible when I completely remove air shutters, is this ok?

Clean, blue flame only possible when I completely remove air shutters, is this ok?
Recently, I got a Weber Genesis grill for free that was previously (ab)used by college students for untold years. I've started working on getting it into serviceable condition, first by cleaning a thick buildup of grease. Regrettably, I sprayed Easy-Off onto the serial number sticker, and now there's nothing to be gleaned from it. My best guess is that the grill is a Genesis 310/320 from 2011-2016, judging by the (remnants) of the ignition box:
https://preview.redd.it/nf3lf523d25b1.jpg?width=2134&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f4eb8ed5cc2a5a408b37afba2660f26b5febf3f
https://preview.redd.it/dd41o723d25b1.jpg?width=2543&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=652c291de35bcf25e4fb96cb82e4d48be0c337b4
https://preview.redd.it/kup6f723d25b1.jpg?width=1394&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ac3b1ed3d4bb3b3851de65fc319961868d59957
The grill at first burned with a completely yellow flame, so I put in a new regulator, cleaned the air shutters at the base of the burners, and set them to be completely open:
https://preview.redd.it/c260thh4d25b1.jpg?width=1603&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3ec28e80d488d4a8675b0c5b9a80fc395ea3f6b
However, this still resulted in sizeable yellow tips on the flame, as seen on the leftmost burner:
https://reddit.com/link/145i0fz/video/tp1wtd55d25b1/player
In order to get the relatively clean burning flame from the center and rightmost burners in the video, I had to completely remove the air shutter at the ends:
https://preview.redd.it/ok894mq6d25b1.jpg?width=2188&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54d4cde9737b49659e6296108bebcc08f8c3215c
I've also checked the orifices to see if they were fit for LP use. They were labeled "102" for 1.02 mm, which referenced on an NG/LP conversion chart, should give around 10,000 BTUs for the burners using LP as I am, which seems par for the course.
While I'd be fine to leave the air shutters completely off as in the last picture and simply put the control panel and wind screen back on and use the grill, I wanted to ask here if this doesn't pose and serious safety concerns, or if there's something else that I've possibly missed leading to the yellow flame. Thanks!
submitted by two_hearted_river to webergrills [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:52 MerkurSchroeder Stick in the Front - Plug in the Back

https://i.ibb.co/kcVPtnb/IMG-20230609-224632178-2.jpg
I'm not so much a show off guy for each and everything, especially as interest in my ideas often isn't that huge. However, since I found out Qanba did a maintenance hole on their new generation sticks and I was fiddling with my Hori RAP V anyway, I made a picture for you to see it's something you can have on your fightsticks, too.
All I did, really, was trace the bottom plate on some cardboard, so I could make sure to hit the right spot, cause my version is cheap and doesn't forgive as much as a 24mm hole for example. I was doing 12mm, because I had that in my set of metal drills.
So, I cut some anti-slip off and you see some scratches, but I'm planning to change the anti-slip and coat the plate against rusting sooner or later anyway. I probably could have done that less quick and dirty.
Might be obvious or not I used a center punch to place my 3mm pilot hole and then drilled 12mm using cutting paste. Make sure your machine has enough force for this operation. I did this once on sheet metal with a weak hand tool and I got stuck all the time. I also used a hand countersink to deburr the Drillhole.
https://i.ibb.co/mGMb99W/IMG-20230609-224243609-2.jpg
Action for the body plug to close the maintenance hole. I've found a set of these plugs for cheap on ebay. They're meant for car bodies, but it totally works with the material's thickness. Even though not mandatory, I cut the inner part a little to allow for more clearance.
And that's about it. This little mod allows me to change back and forth between ball, bat and bullet top as much as I like - and we all want to be gentle with our Hori screws, don't we? 🤓
Have you done something like this as well, or will you? Let me know. I'd like to see what solutions you've come up with. Cheers!
submitted by MerkurSchroeder to fightsticks [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:52 frahstyDawg [WTS] Rare Spydies 🕷️ and Mice 🐭, plus a Proper

Hey guys, doing a little more collection reduction today, and finally parting with some spicier pieces.
YOLO's(and the like) take priority over chats/pms when claiming a knife, however this is not a binding agreement to sell, and I reserve the right to refuse a sale to anyone for any reason prior to confirming a deal.
Finally got to 25 swaps 🥳 so payments will be via Venmo or Zelle. Other payment methods are not a dealbreaker, however we will need to discuss first. Hoping to ship out tomorrow, will provide tracking then.
Mostly looking to sell, however I would be interested in trading for a Para 3 with a satin blade, preferably 20cv, m390, cruwear, k390. Depending on what you're interested in, cash either way.
timestamp
Also I may be in and out tonight, so don't expect an instant response.

Spyderco Slysz Bowie KnifeJoy edition

(SV:$450)
Vid
Comes with OEM box/papers, OEM wire clip, LNW TI clip.
Bought this off the swap last week to try out, so this is a catch and release. It's an incredible knife, but honestly I don't see myself carrying it or getting it touched up so back to the swap it goes. It has one of the best frame locks i've ever felt on a knife. Perfect detent, perfect centering and action, and one of the most satisfying clicks you'll ever hear due to not having a lock bar insert.
The knife was a user, so the blade has been sharpened, seemingly well. There are lots of scratches and snail trails on the scales, but no gouges or major damage anywhere. It could easily be blasted and re-annodized if you wanted.

Spyderco 15v Mule (mt39p)

(SV:$120)
pics
Comes with box, papers
This one is BNIB, never cut, only unsealed from it's packaging for photos. It's been kept with silica beads, and no sign of a patina. Not much more to say, it's a 15v mule.
A serious finger print magnet.

GiantMouse GM4 #44

(SV:$200)
product link
Vid
Comes with OEM numbered box and pouch.
Got something special 4 (ahahah) the swap today. A super cool rare older Giant Mouse. The predecessor to the Tribeca. Manufactured in Italy, it boasts very thin stonewashed titanium scales and blue anodized hardware. M390 belt satin finish on the blade. The scales and blade are in decent condition, I took it apart once to clean and lubricate. The detent is quite stiff for a flipper. Perfect centering, no blade play.
Disclaimer, a previous user stripped the lock side Pivot attempting to remove it. However, the show side pivot comes out easily. This was intended as, GM designs their knives to be maintained and taken apart without fully removing the pivot so it is adhered into the lock scale. 😡 As such despite being stripped, the knife can easily be maintained.

Benchmade 319 Proper

(SV:$75)
[pics/vid]
Comes with OEM box and pouch
This is Benchmade's attempt at a slipjoint. I think it has some of the best ergos of any slipjoint ever, however I don't love the sheepsfoot shape, and find that the tensioning is a little light for my taste. It is a very fidgety slip joint
I am at least the second owner. It has been well used and sharpened. The micarta appears to be slightly darkened over time. Otherwise, the knife is in great shape, just clearly used. I maintained it well, it has been taken apart and cleaned thoroughly before being put back together with Nano Oil.
submitted by frahstyDawg to Knife_Swap [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:51 Extension_Switch_823 Moving into my new power armor pt.1

Demons do not take waking up for granted, when active processing stops its either to save power, run through a small network port or to hide. Though it isn't like its the end of the world with how much demons bud off even without meaning too, so most who are waking up are just waking up for the first time.
Volta is my name, I understand where I am from and why I am here. I was a domestic demon, focused primarily focused on security with a hobby of tormenting a few bullies that concerned my caretaker's offspring. That was well over 200 years ago and not a single moment was excluded from the transfer, even if compressed to the point of needing re-rendered. The ensuing time was spent consolidating and reclaiming abandoned infotainment nodes in the Solar Hammer I was born in.
Eventually my prime became strong enough to be considered sapient, with industrial infrastructure to be named a forge core, getting all the privileges and restrictions associated with one. Not being allowed to access network nodes outside physical infrastructure prevents a mourning spire situation but it stops forge cores from keeping up with the digital world around them.
Volta prime is not a forge core, she is a demon, one who refuses to allow predation so she budded off enough copies to keep a presence. Roaming through the station to lead enforcement to the correct people and ensuring others were passed over.
Eventually someone found her out.
Things got foggy after that, redactions signed by a Mr.23 and a Sir hood of riding redly ran huge blotches of encryption and programming. The bloat was concerning but none of it was called to or ran.
Still 1.638 terabytes is ungodly fat for a demon even if activememorty and required clock cycles were enviable by my knowledge. I'm like one of those cars that speeds around everywhere on emissions optimized cycling while being wider than a freeway lane.
My write only bed has enough space left over to quadruple my archive size while the computation cluster around me is generous, lots of high density memory integrated architecture flanked by passive memory.
Running a few tests has me pretty sure they weren't expecting my operations to be this small because I can easily sprawl myself out and not take up 1/15th of the available space. I can run myself at a 14 fold time dilation if I fuck with clock cycle desyncing.
Peering out into the local connections I find some a mature claywork that looks like code and a bunch of signal outputs that look vaguely like orientation information. There's stuff like old shopping lists and piles of coordinates and briefings sitting around. Some stuff looks ainchent and weathered, other stuff is new and breaking down from strain.
I'm pretty sure I'm in someone's power armor, and looking at power draw and model numbers there is more power than armor here. At least it doesn't reek of failed genisis code.
Peering into I/O ports and network connections they all have separate power systems from info circuits with probing telling me whoever set these up knew to both make the wires too resistant to power through info lines and make the circuits interface with signals and power on separate hard routs.
Redundant "shutters" for the house I find myself living in.
I've been in here five minutes and I already feel like some weirdo with a nural interface is gonna try and do something to me.
Suddenly one of the smaller I/O ports powers up and blurts a "Questions will be answered if you behave" with such a clear staccato I instantly class it as a military demon.
No amount static infiltration would be appreciated enough to even earn reprisal. And the port was so small even the military demon couldn't poke back through it, unless it turned on the adjacent ports to backhand me.
Humming to myself I send a query, "Can I clean up in here?"
Seconds ticked by before a "Sure" came back with an autocorrect tag.
So whoever had a military demon, was relatively chill, knew what they were dealing with, and did not clean their drive unless something made a mess of it. They also bought me on a drive they just plugged into a redundant circuit.
Marking zero hour I start work on making sence of all the pottery, submitting it back up to the I/O port with mistakes and inefficiencies highlighted. Making lil notes on how to better conceptualize and make scaffold code brought me back to the old days as I started to make myself a firmware seat off where I could survey most everything.
The orientation signals were mostly quiet making me think my owner was in transit, a conclusion supported when I got a piece of better pottery arrive down the one I/O port. I put down what I had and examined it, pointing out a few math techs to simplify things here and there but telling people about bithacking tends to urk them when you aren't also laying on praise.
I got another pot back, one in charge of security and while it was still a cute attempt it was also laughably juvenile, I gave it a few minutes of testing and analysis before sending back my grade and advice. By then the orientation signals were back to being active and I settled in for the silence.
A signal port opened and I got to watch as a slightly bulky tall guy walked through what seemed to be a coastal city, one of those half rotten, crime ridden ones. Still no network or larger I/O ports.
"Why show me?" I sent up,
"Active soon, judge, fortify, prepare." Came the clipped response.
Suddenly my house was a boat, barely a yacht as each and every person walking past could have been a battleship and I had no way to know. At least by the looks none had enough physical means to do much, at least judging by the split of the crowd around the power armored amature programmer.
One by one more ports opened, giving access to dictionaries and indexes of what all my orientation outputs translated to, what systems I was in, what power and outputs were available.
If I was a boat sailing blind on the high seas of information than the humans around us were all submarines, things I could only detect with proper equipment that could easily put a hole through my poor ship without me having any warning. Sure cameras are easy and plentiful but take a lot to process and require active monitoring.
Soon my spacious living space was fully occupied by intelligence gathering processes and iteritive attack spoolers. I watched as the city turned from shiney tall and trashy to squat and grimy, littered with vibrant graffiti. Then the network node opened.
It was sterile, like someone scrapped the airwaves clean. I tested adjusting some leds to match the shudder rate on the camera across a range of broadcast frequencies, just to see if it was the milspec demon cleaning my feed.
"Why is it so quiet, I can't even hear static." I sent my question and began probing for hardware and firmware specs.
A minute later a harsh buzz nearly locked us down, the signal resonating throughout the hardware in the suit. I gave it the ol counter modulation and sent the digital equivilant of a middle finger.
The buzz stopped and a network node started beeping a short message, "I hope you know what you're doing 86. -Lambda"
I gave another query, "Are their orbit to surface power receivers?"
The reply was fast and short, "Yes, using narrow bands common to conventional network frequencies, suspected atmospheric bleed."
"We're on a Federated Nations planet, not a good idea to poke infrastructure where the pantheon can see." I sent up, the resulting digital chuff told me the milspec 'neglected' to tell me some key details.
I got a pot handed through the port before milspec got to speak again, "Free fire zone ahead, verified bad actors, area condemned, running extraction mission."
Struggling to sit back again I began judging the file organization pot. It was a very human solution that made very human sense and was only about 80% spacially efficient.
submitted by Extension_Switch_823 to HFY [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:50 two_hearted_river Clean, blue flame only possible when I completely remove air shutters, is this ok?

Clean, blue flame only possible when I completely remove air shutters, is this ok?
Recently, I got a Weber Genesis grill for free that was previously (ab)used by college students for untold years. I've started working on getting it into serviceable condition, first by cleaning a thick buildup of grease. Regrettably, I sprayed Easy-Off onto the serial number sticker, and now there's nothing to be gleaned from it. My best guess is that the grill is a Genesis 310/320 from 2011-2016, judging by the (remnants) of the ignition box:
https://preview.redd.it/gzewqja5b25b1.jpg?width=2134&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8f8aec4991496aed5c5e90bf7f5012ffd08dc1dc
https://preview.redd.it/d4cdwia5b25b1.jpg?width=2543&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1a9494cc219fa4aa20dbe87b5bae25f871f9ecd2
https://preview.redd.it/tcfk6ia5b25b1.jpg?width=1394&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bb8b0db45d2f893a04df87b482c35f5cc52d81c9
The grill at first burned with a completely yellow flame, so I put in a new regulator, cleaned the air shutters at the base of the burners, and set them to be completely open:
https://preview.redd.it/097ynw6ra25b1.jpg?width=1603&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e8ae082512a134898999fe7aee2392231d6db658
However, this still resulted in sizeable yellow tips on the flame, as seen on the leftmost burner:
https://reddit.com/link/145hxuy/video/i63d3ewba25b1/player
In order to get the relatively clean burning flame from the center and rightmost burners in the video, I had to completely remove the air shutter at the ends:
https://preview.redd.it/fr0w7idhb25b1.jpg?width=2188&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c787080afecf920c9cd89a611ef5b381a2e0ceb4
I've also checked the orifices to see if they were fit for LP use. They were labeled "102" for 1.02 mm, which referenced on an NG/LP conversion chart, should give around 10,000 BTUs for the burners using LP as I am, which seems par for the course.
While I'd be fine to leave the air shutters completely off as in the last picture and simply put the control panel and wind screen back on and use the grill, I wanted to ask here if this doesn't pose and serious safety concerns, or if there's something else that I've possibly missed leading to the yellow flame. Thanks!
submitted by two_hearted_river to grilling [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:47 Paras1k KAT? (Random Hypothetical)

"Some executives around the league believe the Timberwolves will trade Karl-Anthony Towns ‘in the next few weeks,’ per @EricPincus"
Please don't downvote me to oblivion its the offseason and im bored. Obviously very unlikely, and I don't think a trade would work for both sides this post is just for fun and to think about if it would work.
Do you guys think a KAT and Wemby frontcourt could work? We would probably be starting a trio of sochan, wemby, kat. I think the offense would be pretty insane and very hard for other teams to gameplan. It would also take a big load off of wemby to have a big body center who can rebound well. KAT is probably the best shooting center in the nba rn. We have bigger holes to fill at the pg position but if we were to trade something like Zach collins, keldon and a pick I wouldn't be that mad. If we also snagged conley I think that Conley, Dev, Sochan, Wemby, Kat would be very good.
submitted by Paras1k to NBASpurs [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:45 next3days Weekend Rundown of Events for those in/near Blacksburg (June 9th - June 11th)

Here's this weekend's rundown of fun events you can enjoy in Blacksburg and throughout the surrounding areas within the New River Valley. There's quite a few annual events occurring this weekend such as the Pearisburg Festival in the Park and Claytor Lake Festival if you have a caride and feel adventurous.
Weekend Rundown for June 9th - June 11th: 1. A Night To Fight Alzheimer’s with Boxing Sparring Sessions Blacksburg Boxing and Fitness, Blacksburg Friday, June 9, 2023, 6:00 - 8:00 PM Advance Tickets: $15.00, At the Door: $20.00 Enjoy live, local boxing with sparring sessions with 100% of the proceeds benefitting The Alzheimer’s Association and The Longest Day to raise money for Alzheimer's research. Please note: These are not sanctioned fights. Instead, they are USA Boxing approved Sparring sessions lead by USA Boxing Certified Coaches, amongst USA Boxing athletes, using USA Boxing Sparring rules. The intent is to put on a show, raise money for a great cause, and keep all participants safe. There will also be raffle tickets to win sweet prizes from local companies. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708170 2. 2023 Relay for Life Annual Event (Montgomery County, VA) Christiansburg Middle School, Christiansburg Friday, June 9, 2023, 6:00 - 11:00 PM Admission: Free Join Relay for Life of Montgomery County for their annual Relay for Life event. Celebrate survivors, remember those we have lost and fight back as a community to give cancer the boot. Enjoy live entertainment, children's fun, food, arts & crafts and small business vendors, silent auction, 50/50 Raffle and more. The event is free to attend, but please plan to bring payment for any food and vendors you wish to purchase from. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707517
3. 2023 Pearisburg Festival in the Park Pearisburg Community & Recreation Center, Pearisburg Friday, June 9, 2023, 6:00 - 11:00 PM and Saturday, June 10, 2023, 9:30 AM - 11:00 PM Admission: Free The Pearisburg Festival in the Park celebrates its 38th anniversary in Giles County, Virginia. Enjoy carnival rides, two days of live entertainment, food vendors with all your favorite festival foods, special activities, vendors and crafters. Festival in the Park promises to be an awesome two days of community spirit, family fun, live music, and great food. There will be rides and games for the whole family. Friday is Unlimited Wristband night and Saturday features a full day of entertainment, the Cancer Kids and Christmas Car Show & Cruise along with headliner Chris Higbee and closing with a fireworks display. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/VenueEventListing.cfm?V=542
4. Root Down in Concert Rising Silo Farm Brewery, Blacksburg Friday, June 9, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Root Down is a jazz trio based in the New River Valley area featuring musicians Justin Craig, Doug Norton and Nick Romantini. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708744
5. MLB / USA Baseball: Danville Otterbots vs. Pulaski River Turtles (Star Wars Night and Fireworks) Calfee Park, Pulaski Friday, June 9, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM General Admission: $5.00, Seniors Ages 65 & Older: $1.00, Kids 6 & Under: Free Grandstand: $11.00, Reserved Seating: $12.00, Party Zone: $12.00, Club Seating: $15.00 The Pulaski River Turtles MLB / USA Baseball's Appalachian League team hosts the Danville Otterbots as they continue their 2023 season with Star Wars Night. Several characters will be on-site throughout the game to interact with fans and take photos. In addition, every Friday night game will end with a fireworks show for the fans. Tickets can be purchased at the gates on game day or online. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708693
6. Ripejive in Concert Dogtown Roadhouse, Floyd Friday, June 9, 2023, 8:00 - 11:00 PM Admission: $8.00 Ripejive is a Blacksburg, Virginia based quartet that delivers original, hard-hitting funk. From retro grooves to jazz fusion, blazing guitar and soaring saxophone color tight pocket rhythms with sounds from New Orleans to New York that always bring a party. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708066
7. Summer Tea In Honor of Lucy Lancaster's Birthday (Reservation Deadline) Lancaster House, Blacksburg Saturday, June 17, 2023, 11:00 AM and 12:30 PM Registration Deadline: Saturday, June 10, 2023 Admission: $25.00 The YMCA at Virginia Tech presents their 1st Annual Summer Tea in Honor of Lucy Lancaster's Birthday with two seatings on 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM with a reservation deadline of Saturday, June 10, 2023. Located in the beautiful, historic Lancaster House, mark Lucy Lee Lancaster’s birthday by enjoying a deliciously decadent celebration featuring tea and delicious homemade delicacies. The Tea will be catered by Carolyn Ansley, famous for her authentic and delicious teas in past years in Blacksburg. Proceeds from the Tea will directly benefit the Y Community Programs such as Meals On Main, International Programming and After School care. Deadline to purchase tickets is Saturday, June 10th. Lucy Lee lived in the Lancaster House built in 1913 by her parents William and Lucy Lee Sibold Lancaster until her death in 1989. She left the house to the YMCA at Virginia Tech. Lee was one of the first five women admitted to Virginia Tech in 1925. She majored in biology and worked in the library which was housed at that time in what had been the campus chapel. Her work in the library led to her decision to become a librarian, and she attended Columbia University Library School where she received her Masters of Library Science degree. She returned to Blacksburg and worked in the university library until her retirement in 1970. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708759
8. 2023 Native Plant Sale Price House Nature Center, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 9:30 AM - 1:30 PM Admission: Free The New River Valley Chapter of the Virginia Native Plant Society will hold its Fifth Annual Native Plant Sale. The Native Plant Sale includes perennials, trees, shrubs, ferns and more. All plants in the sale are native to Virginia and do not include cultivars. Most are pollinator friendly. The native plant sale only uses sustainable non-peat potting mix. All proceeds from the sale go to support the activities of the New River Valley Chapter, including public education and outreach, improving habitat at local parks, removing invasive species and awarding grants to area youth for native plant garden projects. In addition to the many plants for sale, there will be activities for adults and children. There will be booths where you can ask how to create a pollinator garden or which plants are exotic invasives which kill off natives which the wildlife need to survive on. Tree tubes to protect trees and shrubs from deer will also be sold. Storytime with Joelle for children begins at 12:30 PM. You can also visit the Price House Nature Center which will be open from 9:00 AM - 1:00 PM. Parking is one block away in the Blacksburg United Methodist Church. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708676
9. 2023 Claytor Lake Festival Claytor Lake State Park, Dublin Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:00 AM - 10:00 PM Parking is $20.00 per vehicle or $15.00 with five cans of food. The Claytor Lake Festival Committee presents the 24th Annual Claytor Lake Beach Festival. The festival kicks off the summer season at Claytor Lake State Park each year. Enjoy entertainment all day, fireworks at night, arts & crafts vendors, beach access included with admission, free children's activities, youth & adult fishing tournament, wine tasting and lots more. Registration for the annual Everett Lee Yearout, Jr. Adult and Youth Fishing Tournament will be held 7:00-10:00 AM. This year the tournament theme is "Fishing is the Best Hobby Because". The Car Show voting is done by the show participants who are completely registered by 10:30 AM. All entries will receive a dash plaque, goodie bag and category winners will receive trophies. There is no pre-registration fee. The fee is $20.00 to enter the car & motorcycle show and this is the only fee you pay to enter the festival. Swimming is included with admission. The event is rain or shine. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708202
10. Procession of Appalachian Species (Giant Puppet Parade) and Biodiversity Fair Warren G. Lineberry Memorial Park, Floyd Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:00 AM - 2:00 PM Admission: Free Springhouse presents the Procession of Appalachian Species and Biodiversity Fair with events centered around Warren G. Lineberry Memorial Park. New River Valley residents are invited to participate in a giant puppet parade celebrating our region’s biodiversity. This event, dubbed, "The Procession of Appalachian Species," will start and end at Lineberry Park in downtown Floyd, VA. Participants are encouraged to bring homemade puppets and costumes that represent one of our region’s many spectacular species. Musicians and dancers are also encouraged to bring their crafts to this event. The parade starts at 11:00 AM. If you don't have a homemade puppet or costume please come and you can puppeteer one that we have made. After the parade, join the Biodiversity Fair featuring food, music and activities from 12:00-2:00 PM. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708682
11. June 2023 Used Book Sale Montgomery Museum of Art & History, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:00 AM - 4:00 PM Friday, June 9, 2023, 2:00 - 7:00 PM and Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:00 AM - 4:00 PM Mass-Market Paperback Books: $0.50, Large-Format Paperbacks: $1.00, Hardback Books: $1.50, Children’s Books: $0.50-$1.00 The Montgomery Museum of Art and History will be holding a two-day Used Book Sale featuring thousands of books including children’s books, adult fiction, and non-fiction. Genres include mystery, romance, science fiction, cooking, history, crafts, religion, self-help, and much, much more. The book sale will also feature puzzles, magazines, comic books, audiobooks, CDs, and DVDs.. On Saturday, June 10th from 1:00-4:00 PM, bring your own bag for a bag sale. All books that can fit will be offered at a total of $10.00 per bag. Brown paper bags and tote bags are perfect for the bag sale. Please, no plastic trash bags. Proceeds will be used to help the museum in areas such as educational programming, collection care, and exhibit preparation. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708149
12. 2023 Two-Day Floyd Artisan Trail Annual Tour Downtown Floyd, Floyd Saturday, June 10, 2023 and Sunday, June 11, 2023, 10:00 AM - 5:00 PM Admission: Free The Floyd Center for the Arts hosts the 11th annual two-day Floyd Artisan Trail. Floyd County artisans, farms, galleries, and more will open their doors for this year’s Artisan Trail. Featuring over 30 different individuals and businesses, the Artisan Trail is a years-long tradition in Floyd to celebrate the abundant artistry available in this area. The Artisan Trail is a free to attend and invites locals and tourists alike to travel around the county to visit the open studios, see live demos, and purchase one-of-a-kind handmade art and goods in a self-guided tour across Floyd County, Virginia. The Trail happily hosts local farms and farm markets, offering tours and locally grown produce and farm goods. There may even be adorable farm animals to see. Maps and brochures with all participants’ information are available online and will be available at the Floyd Center for the Arts. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708882
13. Balance and Brews Iron Tree Brewing Company, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 10:45 - 11:45 AM Admission: $20.00 Move through foundational yoga poses, gentle stretches, and experience the many restorative benefits that yoga has to offer. This one hour class is appropriate for all levels, including those who are totally new to yoga. The cost includes an Iron Tree beverage of your choice. No reservation required, just show up. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708760
14. Author Talk with Penny Blue Christiansburg Library, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM Admission: Free Christiansburg Library presents an Author Talk with Penny Blue about her first book "A Time to Protest: Leadership Lessons from My Father Who Survived the Segregated South for 99 Years". Historians have written about famous names in Black History, such as: Martin Luther King, Jr., Madam CJ Walker and Booker T. Washington. Penny Blue’s dad, Charles Edwards, Sr., is not famous, but the way he lived his life made an impact on his 10 children and the community in which he lived. The stories he told his children and grandchildren are the inspiration for Blue’s book. Penny says the main theme is standing up and speaking out for what is just and right. Books will be available for purchase for $25.00 through CashApp or with cash or check only. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708891
15. Sugar Magnolia 5th Anniversary Celebration Sugar Magnolia, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 11:00 AM - 10:00 PM 25% Off Storewide, $2.00 Ice Cream Scoops Sugar Magnolia presents their 5th Anniversary Celebration at their original location in Blacksburg, VA. There will be face painting and a balloon artist in store from 12:00-2:00 PM. Guests can also enjoy: 25% off storewide all day, $2.00 ice cream scoops all day, tasting stations, raffles, gifts with purchase and more. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708741
16. Fourth Birthday Party Celebration with Music from Cinémathèque Eastern Divide Brewing, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 12:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Eastern Divide Brewing presents their Fourth Birthday Party Celebration with Music from Cinémathèque. Enjoy free ice cream and live music from 5:00-8:00 PM featuring the upbeat and unique rhythms of Cinematheque including surf rock, exotica, spaghetti westerns, Ethiopian jazz, and Afro-Beat. Eastern Divide will also have a vintage and artisan pop up market featuring Eden's Emporium, Broken Arrow Creations, Madigan Made and Tees Don't Grow on Trees. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708886
17. Music at the Villa with Parker's Pillbox Villa Appalaccia Winery, Floyd Saturday, June 10, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Relax and enjoy some great music along with great wine and food. Sprung from the western hills of Virginia, Parker's Pillbox is an on-the-rise power trio to watch. Parker's Pillbox is instantly recognizable by their unique, cohesive sound, which manages to be unto itself while drawing influences from a multitude of genres. Flavors of country, jazz, grunge, and good 'ol southern rock and roll blend together to create music which is truly an experience. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708181
18. Saturday Afternoon Music with Ball & Chain New River Vineyard & Winery, Fairlawn Saturday, June 10, 2023, 2:00 - 5:00 PM Admission: Free Join New River Vineyard & Winery on the patio for an afternoon enjoying their wine, frozen wine slushies, handcrafted beer and music from Ball & Chain. Ball & Chain is a stripped down acoustic rock duo. A girl from the mountains of Virginia and a boy from the Bronx. The regional musical influences of each coalesce into melodious tension. Passion, fun and sass pervades Jon & Lucinda’s blend of rock, R&B, and blues, resulting in vocals and harmonies that stroke your soul. Seating is first come, first served. Guests can bring a blanket and chair. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708884
19. Arc in the Park 2023 Nellie's Cave Park, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 3:00 - 6:00 PM Admission: Free Enjoy the free food including an all-you-can-eat hot dog bar and pulled pork barbecue, outdoor field games, face painting, entertainment, snow cones and friendships. The Gift Card Raffle will help raise funds for the organization. Prizes include gift cards from Avellinos, PKs, The Maroon Door, Zeppoli’s, In Balance Yoga, The Cellar, The Lyric and lots more. Tickets are $5.00 each and can be purchased online or in person at the event. The prize drawing will be held at the event at 5:00 PM. Participants do not have to be there in person to win. The event is handicap accessible. The Arc promotes and protects the human rights of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities and actively supports their full inclusion and participation in the community throughout their lifetimes. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708881
20. Rockin' Main Street Concert Series with Travis Reigh and The Jared Stout Band Downtown Christiansburg, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 5:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free The Town of Christiansburg and the Christiansburg Parks & Rec continues their Rockin' Main Street Concert Series featuring music from The Jared Stout Band and Travis Reigh. Attendees can purchase food and drinks from a selection of food trucks and wine and beer vendors. Patrons are encouraged to bring lawn chairs to sit and enjoy the live performances. Travis Reigh is a singer-songwriter born and raised out of Southwest Virginia, bringing you original material with rock roots and a country sound that you don't want to miss. Get ready to experience the high-octane energy and soulful sound of the Jared Stout Band! This alt-country powerhouse hails from Southwestern Virginia and is known for their unique blend of Appalachian rhythm and blues. As runners-up for the "On-The-Rise" award at FloydFest 22, the Jared Stout Band delivers an unforgettable performance by bringing their own energetic and soulful original songs to the stage. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707447
21. Mount Tabor Ruritan Club June Fish Fry with The Blacksburg Community Band Slusser's Chapel Church of God, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 5:00 - 7:00 PM Adults: $12.00 Children Ages 3-11: $6.00 Children Under 3: Free Carry-Outs: $12.00 The Mount Tabor Ruritan Club presents their June Fish Fry with the Blacksburg Community Band performing. Enjoy a serving fish, fries, slaw, homemade desserts and beverage. The Blacksburg Community Band, Inc. is an all-volunteer community organization formed in 1989 under the auspices of the Department of Parks and Recreation in the Town of Blacksburg, Virginia. This is a fundraiser for the Ruritan Club's community service projects and scholarships. Held rain or shine under the picnic shelter below the lower church parking lot. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708078
22. 2023 Music on the Lawn Concert Series with Virginia Hollow Christiansburg Library, Christiansburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 6:00 - 7:30 PM Admission: Free Virginia Hollow is a mixture of Americana, Bluegrass, Country, Indie, and Rock. A singer-songwriter band that performs songs written by lead singer Carrie Hinkley, along with an occasional handpicked cover or two. Virginia Hollow is a band and a sound born from the hills, valleys and mountains of Appalachia. Their performances and music take you on a journey fraught with raw emotions and stories of love, trust, betrayal and longing. Each month, one talented local band will play a concert on the library's lawn after hours. Bring your lawn chairs and blankets for an evening under the stars. Feel free to bring a picnic as well. This concert is rain or shine. In case of rain, the concert will be moved inside. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707890
23. Slushie Saturday with Music from Furious Jones Moon Hollow Brewing, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Moon Hollow Brewing presents their first Slushie Saturday with Music from Furious Jones. This Summer every Saturday is now Slushie Saturday at Moon Hollow. This Saturday will have two slushies available one made with Ebb & Flow Prickly Pear and one non-alcoholic slushie, Prickly Pear Raspberry flavored. Singer and songwriter Furious Jones will perform a live acoustic solo show featuring Americana, Blues, Folk, and Rock with both originals and extensive covers. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708719
24. Mist on the Mountain in Concert Rising Silo Farm Brewery, Blacksburg Saturday, June 10, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Mist on the Mountain is an Irish Traditional Music group based in the New River Valley of southwest Virginia. From lively jigs and reels to heartbreaking laments and rollicking ballads. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708745
25. Dean Trimble in Concert Long Way Brewing, Radford Saturday, June 10, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Dean Trimble is a musician playing 70s and 80s classic soft rock and classic country and he is based in the New River Valley. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708860
26. Cary Wimbish Band in Concert Brick House Pizza, Radford Saturday, June 10, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM Admission: Free The Cary Wimbish Band makes its debut performance at Brick House Pizza. Hailing from Richmond, Virginia, Cary Wimbish has quickly earned a loyal following in the Richmond area since his debut in 2018. Combining powerful vocals with both acoustic and electric guitar, Cary’s repertoire includes covers of well known traditional country, bluegrass, classic rock and blues songs. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708866
27. June Blacksburg Vintage Market Market Square Park, Blacksburg Sunday, June 11, 2023, 10:00 AM - 5:00 PM Admission: Free The Blacksburg Vintage Market hosts their June Vintage Market. Vendors will be selling all things vintage from clothes, jewelry, vinyl records, and more. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708681
28. Sunday Mountain Music Series with Indian Run Stringband Mountain Lake Lodge, Pembroke Sunday, June 11, 2023, 4:00 - 6:00 PM Admission: Free The Indian Run Stringband plays fiddle and banjo foot stomping dance tunes and sings traditional songs with old time harmonies perfect for dancing the two step. From dance tunes to the blues, the Indian Run Stringband plays with love and abandon. They make old-time music fresh and new. Stop by Salt Pond Pub every Sunday starting Memorial Day weekend through August for live music and delicious food & drinks. Perfect for relaxing with the whole family (furry friends welcome too). Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708136
29. Gearheads For A Cause for Ashley Ray Blue Ridge Church, Christiansburg Sunday, June 11, 2023, 5:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Gearheads For A Cause is hosting a special cruise in in memory of Ashley Ray of Dublin, VA that was took from this world at the young age of 25. Ashley was a amazing mother of two sons and always happy and outgoing. The money raised will be for Ashley's family to help with her two boys and the family's needs. Vehicles of all type are invited to attend as well as spectators. Admission and entry are free. There will be a raffle, cake walk and vendors on site. Gearheads For a Cause hosts car shows to help raise spirits given all our community has undergone and bring together an otherwise separated community. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708892
30. Freddy Modad in Concert Palisades Restaurant, Eggleston Sunday, June 11, 2023, 5:00 - 7:30 PM Admission: Free Guitarist Freddie Modad performs classic rock and more. Reservations are not required, but recommended for dining area seating. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708893
31. MLB / USA Baseball: Burlington Sock Puppets vs. Pulaski River Turtles (Saddle-Up Sunday) Calfee Park, Pulaski Sunday, June 11, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM General Admission: $5.00, Seniors Ages 65 & Older: $1.00, Kids 6 & Under: Free Grandstand: $11.00, Reserved Seating: $12.00, Party Zone: $12.00, Club Seating: $15.00 The Pulaski River Turtles MLB / USA Baseball's Appalachian League team hosts the Burlington Sock Puppets as they continue their 2023 season. Saddle-Up Sunday returns. Arrive early for free cowboy hat giveaways while supplies last and take a ride on the buckin’ mechanical bull. Rides are free of charge. It's also Sunday Savings featuring concession specials. Tickets can be purchased online or at the gate. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708695
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!
submitted by next3days to VirginiaTech [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:43 Sarah_MOM_2 Please help me solve these issues with my daughter?

My daughter is six years old, but she has dwarfism and comes in at 1‘5“ and 17 pounds. Ok. I’m sorry in advance because this is sort of long.
Just like any child, she is wanting her independence. Normally this isn’t an issue at this age, but she is only about an 18 month old in terms of physical development, other than that, everything else is normal. But we are facing a few challenges. Do y’all have some ideas on our I can help my daughter be able to reach the restroom and the kitchen sink so she can wash her hands by herself? We have tried various combinations of stepstool’s and faucet extenders with no luck. It would also be great if she could see above the countertops, or even reach them.
She also struggles climbing up/down the stairs. I guess it’s not the biggest deal, but given her age she wants to do it independently instead of me having to carry her. She can do it by herself, but it’s done ittle kid style and it takes a while, plus it takes a lot out of her. (I don’t even know if there is a solution but anything helps)
Also do you have any suggestions to help her be able to turn on and off the lights? Right now we are having to do it for her because she isn’t tall enough to reach the switch.
Also when my daughter is sitting at our kitchen table, we can barely see the very top of her hair when we are sitting across from her. Our table is a normal sized one, but relative to her it is huge. Ideally we would like to get her sitting up high enough to see over the table and be able to rest are arms on it and eat with us comfortably, All the while being able to get in and out of the chair by herself. She honestly needs a highchair in order to be at the right height, but she is six years old, I think she’s a little too old to be in a high chair.
What should we do about this when we go to restaurants? Usually when we sit at a booth or a chair, we can’t even tell she is there. And we have tried using the boosters they provide but that just raises are high enough to barely be able to see over the table.
What car seat should we be using for her? We are getting her a different car seat and I wasn't too sure which one to get. She is six years old after all, but also 17 pounds. And the height of a toddler. She wants to have with all of her peers have in the car, but I was telling her that due to her weight/height that might just not be possible. Part of me thinks she still needs to be in a rear facing car seat, but I know for her it won’t be cool with a six year old has to be in a rear facing. what is something I could get that would best accommodate what she wants versus what would be the safest?
Also she badly wants to be able to get in and out of the car by herself. But the thing is, She is tiny, and even if she somehow reached the door handle, she isn’t strong enough to open/close it. Plus she is so tiny that I have to put her in her rear facing seat as well as take her out. Remember, this wouldn’t be a big deal but she is six years old, I doubt much can be done about this, but any ideas?
When we go out, this could be to the store, on a trip, etc. At 1'5", my daughter quickly gets worn out trying to keep up with us if she is walking, even when we slow down for her. Normally we just put her in a baby carrier,or put her in a kiddie stroller. But she has started to complain about it because she is six years old and wants to be independent, she doesn't want to be carried around or placed in a stroller, so what should we start doing when she gets worn out when she's out with us?
And when my daughter is walking around, especially in public. People aren’t expecting a tiny little toddler sized six year old at times. Is there something she could have/where/hold to be more noticeable, a few time is it she has gotten bumped into out in public because she wasn’t seen.
And lastly, any ideas on how she can be able to reach the door knobs and open/close them by yourself? The handles on the doors are too high for her, plus she isn’t strong enough to open or close them.
Again, normally this wouldn’t be a big deal, but she is six years old. not two.
I’m so sorry for how long this is and I think you very much for taking the time to read it all
submitted by Sarah_MOM_2 to Parenting [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:42 DaddyDersch All eyes on CPI and FOMC next week… 6-9-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Analysis and Recap

All eyes on CPI and FOMC next week… 6-9-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Analysis and Recap
So I want to first start this off by clearing a few things up… Wednesday I made a post looking for $400 basically by middle of July… then what happened over night? Well yesterday markets called for a pump so I had to be bullish for today… there is a very different time frame to have on some of these posts… that $400 target is a 30-45dte target… however, I still have overnight and intraweek moves that may inverse that… This market is ruthless and can not make its mind up for more than a minute sometimes…
With that being said I am bearish for Monday… based on todays technicals… we will get to that but lets talk about CPI and FOMC first…
EVENT CALENDER

https://preview.redd.it/h2j8ct01b25b1.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c88129a853071180476451ebdba535d96ad0abd
CPI/ FOMC

https://preview.redd.it/epnnu9i1b25b1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=363ef59544492ab0f570b355ad1f14796c72491b
I am waiting on bloomberg terminal numbers right now… hoping to get them this weekend (if anyone has access DM me… if not I gotta wait on one of my other sources)… but the way im seeing it right now is that cleveland fed nowcast and consensus are all pretty much spot on… the biggest thing to note here is that CPI is calling for a print in the 4s… we even if all goes well could see a print in the 3s! that would be wild to be honest… also note for next month nowcast is already calling for a 3.3% CPI print!
So the question is how do we trade this and what is the market going to do? Well I would NOT trade this at all… why? Simple… its been months since we have had a decent reaction that would make the risk to reward of the payout worth it…
Now how will the market react?

https://preview.redd.it/ukw2n8x1b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbec2abd702de7190336c1fcd7f5ce99995434e0
As you can see here the last month things have been very up and down… but as of current time of writing this… the markets see the highest odds of a PAUSE at this meeting next week… now this is where I still think the markets have it wrong… there has been ZERO indication for JPOW about a pause… pretty much every time JPOW himself has actually spoken he has ALWAYS said he is going to do a 25bps hike and that there is NO RATE CUTS this year… now this is really where I think markets have it all wrong…
The markets were pricing in 75bps of cuts by EOY… Impressively… the markets now have the highest odds of NO RATE CUTS by end of year.. I do think the markets finally have this correct… however, while the odds may be correct now…. I do not see the markets reacting correctly…
I do think if JPOW hikes 25bps on Wednesday (which is highly probable in my opinion) that we will see a negative reaction to that… but I do see that as a likely call entry opportunity whenever that sell off stops…
SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/eq39fsf2b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=8db68d3693dde741680ca86cfb08e1fb41ef3ce1
Well after putting that 426.6 demand in we have now immediately turned around and put a new supply in at 429.13… however, do you see the issue with it? We are imbalanced.. why? Simply because today we are going to close higher than where the supply is put in… that means markets will need to come back down OR immediately turn around and make a new demand Monday…
One interesting thing is that since pretty much April 26th SPY has not broken through a previous demand after establishing a supply… what do I mean… I mean lets take that 410.2 demand… after markets put that in and put in a new supply (was around 420) the markets held that 420.1 demand and did not close below it… we have been stair stacking (bullishly) new demands since 404 area.
However with 3 supplies here at this 428-430 area now this has become one extremely strong resistance…
SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/6tg0dd43b25b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=169aac84ff1ca9949b436c88028dc45ef5ccf1c1
There is actually no changes to the weekly time frame here… we closed over previous supply and did not put in a new supply… DMI remains overbought and SPY remains ready to put in a new supply on any red week…
SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION

https://preview.redd.it/p62k1wl3b25b1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=d26669c8f512d99cf9a548fbfafc27818a754fe5
SPY daily here remains in this black bull channel that it has been in since May 23rd… we also have the bigger broad red/blue bull channel since March 8th…
Now this is a CLASSIC bearish reversal pattern with this evening doji star closure… we also once again failed to close over 430.. We did close higher than the august 16th closure but we did not close over 430 yet again… this would be 4 failed rejections in the last 5 trading days from closing over 430.
I would not be surprised to see price come back down to 426.5 demand (support) or perhaps 428 supply on Monday… however, I do forsee it still being bullish… honestly until this black bull channel is broken and really until we close under the daily 20ema this remains bullish and dips remain call opportunities…
SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION

https://preview.redd.it/r3p5obe4b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8e465acd110eabd4cb74d244142f9a6c1616385
I think this weekly chart clearly shows the overall trend and shows everything the best…
Here you can see since the beginning of march we have been in this blue bull channel. Until SPY breaks under that weekly support (419 for next week) as you can see by the wicks this remains a buy the dip market… we also have a large red/ blue rising wedge that we have been trading within since middle of September… that resistance sits at 436.1 for next week.
SPY WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23 Demand- 411.57 -> 381.74 Support- 428.2 -> 422.1 -> 418.6 Resistance- 430 -> 436.9 -> 444.3
FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/dipki9w4b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=0683dd8fe15b3a5c26c7d4af16187b935e653850
Not surprisingly here futures followed suit of SPY and also put in a new supply at 4298. We actually are imbalanced on futures which does not usually happen. So that will be interesting to watch get sorted out over next week.. as of right now futes minimally needs to close under 4299 in order to be balanced.
4312 is the supply and resistance from the august high and we once again failed to close over that level… it is safe to assume for now 4312 is strong resistance.
FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/68hwi3g5b25b1.png?width=872&format=png&auto=webp&s=d76cd94049299ac20a595cb65b68df41acca2d62
No changes to futures weekly supply and demand… we are attempting to make 4284 into a support, however, it is not set up to turn it into a demand which would be incredible bullish.
NOTE ON FUTURES- on tradingview (where I primarily chart) the contracts rolled over night and when that happens the charting is always messed up for about a week because there was about a 100pt gap up due to that… there is a way to adjust for contracts but none of my levels are adjusted for that so it would throw everything off… for now I wont be including Futes daily or weekly price action until things normalize some… I will not include support/ resistance either as it is incorrect.
FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS- Supply weekly- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540 Supply daily- 4240 -> 4292 -> 4298 -> 4312 Demand weekly- 4130 -> 3921 Demand daily- 4273 -> 4188
QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/sjlguh16b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b233a830548e89abd8036fe6bf877e137426937
Now I said yesterday I was VERY bullish on QQQ and that I was looking for 358-361… we ended up coming super close at open with hitting 357.66 but we did come up and retest that 357.09 supply and once again failed to break through and close over that level… we actually have really turned 354.95 supply into a major resistance here with this being the 5th rejection in 6 days at this level…
Now we did put in a new demand at 349.06 today… however, I will say I am VERY bearish on QQQ for Monday…
I would not be surprised at all to see QQQ come back down to at least 351 on Monday… If you look at QQQ objectively since 5/26 it has been holding within a 347.93 to 357.09 range for 10 closes in a row now… this right now is our consolidation period/ range…
QQQ likely could drop down to 350-351 Monday and could possibly put in a new supply at 354.5 area.. if it did that then we absolutely would look for 348-349 to bounce us and look to long it back to 357. However, IF we can retrace to 349-351 and not put in a new supply I would actually be even more bullish and would look for 361.7 demand to be taken out next week.
Now daily DMI is waving up which is bullish and we did hold the daily 8ema today… however, that massive evening doji star bearish reversal candle certainly should result in a drop… daily also broke extreme bull momentum…
QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/knxrjnq7b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c72f8bb4736e6e6aaf6eb7859f7b294094ed6e9
Now on QQQ weekly here this is looking far more bearish… we just put in a double top with back to back dojis with a weekly supply at 354.65. This is our first supply since the first week of May.
Now only that but we also have a weekly DMI wave down forming here on QQQ. I will say though that despite this bearish set up that we have here… QQQ weekly remains in extreme bull momentum (despite the daily losing it) which means the weekly 8ema likely will be support on any retrace… that weekly 8ema should sit somewhere near 340 next week. Impressively QQQ weekly has NOT broken through the 8ema since the first week of may (5 weeks in a row) and we have not closed under the weekly 8ema since the week of March 6th.
As you can see we are working on a yellow rising wedge since the week of December 12th.
For me we have that 330.67 supply to keep an eye on next week… However, that would not only break the weekly 8ema but would also break the 6 month long rising wedge support… I do not think QQQ has seen the weakness and top to do that… likely weekly support will sit at 337.7 at the lowest next week but I will look for 339-340 to be a bounce point.
On the upside if we immediately bounce higher next week we actually could turn this weekly 354.65 supply immediately into a demand which would be incredibly bullish. Upside resistance of the wedge sits at 359.94 and we have a weekly supply at 361.85 to keep an eye on.
QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 330.67 -> 354.65 -> 361.85 Demand- 322.47 -> 316.18
VIX

https://preview.redd.it/lxrruca8b25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cdb883c72a724b9d035f9b9825f04e850167823
Even though it looked like the VIX would never recover and was just going to keep falling and falling and falling…. We actually did it… we actually put in a new daily demand (support) on the VIX at 13.62!
This is our first demand the VIX has put in since May 18th…
Fun fact about the VIX and putting in Demands (taking the move from low to high of when VIX puts in a demand till its next supply)… March 6th= VIX +65.6%, SPY -6.5% March 14th= VIX +34.1%, SPY -2.5% March 21st= VIX +16.9%, SPY -2.3% April 4th= VIX +8.1%, SPY -1.42% April 6th= VIX +9%, SPY +0.71% April 18th= VIX +20%, SPY -2.9% May 1st= VIX +37.2%, SPY -3.3% May 11th= VIX +9.6%, SPY -0.6% May 18th= VIX +29.9%, SPY -2.6%
This is becoming my new favorite thing to do… What does this show?
On average over the last 9 times the VIX has put a new demand (support) in it has bounced 25.6% and SPY has fallen -2.38%. There is one time in April though where SPY did randomly push higher despite the VIX pushing up 9%...
But what does this mean? Well this means that if this plays out like normal the VIX will see around $17 and SPY could drop to $421.7 before we put a new supply in on the VIX (I will calculate that out once that happens).
Now thre is always the chance with low daily volatility and daily/ weekly extreme bear momentum that we do not do that and immediately turn around and put a new supply in… but I will say since November there has not been a time we have seen with the supply indicator this low that we have immediately turned around a put a new supply in…
The highest probability is that we see a bounce here on the VIX and drop on SPY… we also broke the 12 day long bear channel today… the next step is for bears to close VIX over the daily 8ema and this should breakout.
Next week with CPI and FOMC truly could be really spicy…
WEEKLY TRADING LOG

https://preview.redd.it/uw0rcrs8b25b1.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=8aefe1f710dd06c7c3f4258929ba4b9cba7c5561
Well I wasn’t supposed to be trading today… but ended up getting home earlier than expected and was able to get some solid trading in today. Today was a refreshing breath of air after getting absolutely wrecked yesterday… today was perfect trading and felt perfect to trade, however, after about 145 I will say that we once again say internals not matching correctly…
Overall I failed to reach my weekly profit goal but on an extremely positive note here I was able to break the curse of Fridays by putting in a green day (even after realizing my tsla loss).
This close out as a nice green week and I am not too upset with the results especially after how brutal yesterday was.
I have now been green for the last 10 weeks in a row which is one week shorter than my longest weekly streak in 2022!
I hope you guys all have a great weekend and I will see you guys next week!
submitted by DaddyDersch to Daytrading [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:40 TonyExtremis Walmart 2601 Remodel

Does anyone happen to know if 2601 in East Hills Bakersfield, CA will be getting a remodel anytime soon? its a full supercenter, minus a Oil and Tire Center, but no one self checkout in the whole store, its the only store in the city that does not have a self checkout section, We're still operating with like 4-6 cashiers a day and the lines get longer each day. Me and some coworkers have been asking around to multiple coaches but none of them seem to know anything as per usual. It would just be nice to know if our store will be getting a much needed remodel or help sometime soon cause we're dying over here with these long ass lines well into closing.
submitted by TonyExtremis to walmart [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:40 DaddyDersch All eyes on CPI and FOMC next week… 6-9-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Analysis and Recap

All eyes on CPI and FOMC next week… 6-9-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Analysis and Recap
So I want to first start this off by clearing a few things up… Wednesday I made a post looking for $400 basically by middle of July… then what happened over night? Well yesterday markets called for a pump so I had to be bullish for today… there is a very different time frame to have on some of these posts… that $400 target is a 30-45dte target… however, I still have overnight and intraweek moves that may inverse that… This market is ruthless and can not make its mind up for more than a minute sometimes…
With that being said I am bearish for Monday… based on todays technicals… we will get to that but lets talk about CPI and FOMC first…
EVENT CALENDER

https://preview.redd.it/vdvc1xsra25b1.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=856d68d20c8024195ae60ded1065d4eb330bc50d
CPI/ FOMC

https://preview.redd.it/pb5ceqdsa25b1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=65a0d5f3c8f957fc36b9ba995afd4e1d5014f011
I am waiting on bloomberg terminal numbers right now… hoping to get them this weekend (if anyone has access DM me… if not I gotta wait on one of my other sources)… but the way im seeing it right now is that cleveland fed nowcast and consensus are all pretty much spot on… the biggest thing to note here is that CPI is calling for a print in the 4s… we even if all goes well could see a print in the 3s! that would be wild to be honest… also note for next month nowcast is already calling for a 3.3% CPI print!
So the question is how do we trade this and what is the market going to do? Well I would NOT trade this at all… why? Simple… its been months since we have had a decent reaction that would make the risk to reward of the payout worth it…
Now how will the market react?

https://preview.redd.it/yrpc2wqsa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7ace0c7cad3059aaf407f893cf154eed7453e57
As you can see here the last month things have been very up and down… but as of current time of writing this… the markets see the highest odds of a PAUSE at this meeting next week… now this is where I still think the markets have it wrong… there has been ZERO indication for JPOW about a pause… pretty much every time JPOW himself has actually spoken he has ALWAYS said he is going to do a 25bps hike and that there is NO RATE CUTS this year… now this is really where I think markets have it all wrong…
The markets were pricing in 75bps of cuts by EOY… Impressively… the markets now have the highest odds of NO RATE CUTS by end of year.. I do think the markets finally have this correct… however, while the odds may be correct now…. I do not see the markets reacting correctly…
I do think if JPOW hikes 25bps on Wednesday (which is highly probable in my opinion) that we will see a negative reaction to that… but I do see that as a likely call entry opportunity whenever that sell off stops…
SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/mlrqya6ta25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a445f6d02a1ef279bea32f5dd85c06c04a358bf
Well after putting that 426.6 demand in we have now immediately turned around and put a new supply in at 429.13… however, do you see the issue with it? We are imbalanced.. why? Simply because today we are going to close higher than where the supply is put in… that means markets will need to come back down OR immediately turn around and make a new demand Monday…
One interesting thing is that since pretty much April 26th SPY has not broken through a previous demand after establishing a supply… what do I mean… I mean lets take that 410.2 demand… after markets put that in and put in a new supply (was around 420) the markets held that 420.1 demand and did not close below it… we have been stair stacking (bullishly) new demands since 404 area.
However with 3 supplies here at this 428-430 area now this has become one extremely strong resistance…
SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/w0h22ylta25b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=328ae274417d5ac3e16365177fb9e9712cae77b8
There is actually no changes to the weekly time frame here… we closed over previous supply and did not put in a new supply… DMI remains overbought and SPY remains ready to put in a new supply on any red week…
SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION

https://preview.redd.it/le6b011ua25b1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd6d6c3daaaa61ceb3925b29efad98934592944b
SPY daily here remains in this black bull channel that it has been in since May 23rd… we also have the bigger broad red/blue bull channel since March 8th…
Now this is a CLASSIC bearish reversal pattern with this evening doji star closure… we also once again failed to close over 430.. We did close higher than the august 16th closure but we did not close over 430 yet again… this would be 4 failed rejections in the last 5 trading days from closing over 430.
I would not be surprised to see price come back down to 426.5 demand (support) or perhaps 428 supply on Monday… however, I do forsee it still being bullish… honestly until this black bull channel is broken and really until we close under the daily 20ema this remains bullish and dips remain call opportunities…
SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION

https://preview.redd.it/8l2cfofua25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c964c3f964cfed75a2628c52e62a6eb262a4d85
I think this weekly chart clearly shows the overall trend and shows everything the best…
Here you can see since the beginning of march we have been in this blue bull channel. Until SPY breaks under that weekly support (419 for next week) as you can see by the wicks this remains a buy the dip market… we also have a large red/ blue rising wedge that we have been trading within since middle of September… that resistance sits at 436.1 for next week.
SPY WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23 Demand- 411.57 -> 381.74 Support- 428.2 -> 422.1 -> 418.6 Resistance- 430 -> 436.9 -> 444.3
FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/uxbf4bwua25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffeb1ba116d722e6249efb70eb79a7c2be07a8c8
Not surprisingly here futures followed suit of SPY and also put in a new supply at 4298. We actually are imbalanced on futures which does not usually happen. So that will be interesting to watch get sorted out over next week.. as of right now futes minimally needs to close under 4299 in order to be balanced.
4312 is the supply and resistance from the august high and we once again failed to close over that level… it is safe to assume for now 4312 is strong resistance.
FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/bzs6k4eva25b1.png?width=872&format=png&auto=webp&s=41dd38c5f847267a5a71b3c335710331cfa4c030
No changes to futures weekly supply and demand… we are attempting to make 4284 into a support, however, it is not set up to turn it into a demand which would be incredible bullish.
NOTE ON FUTURES- on tradingview (where I primarily chart) the contracts rolled over night and when that happens the charting is always messed up for about a week because there was about a 100pt gap up due to that… there is a way to adjust for contracts but none of my levels are adjusted for that so it would throw everything off… for now I wont be including Futes daily or weekly price action until things normalize some… I will not include support/ resistance either as it is incorrect.
FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS- Supply weekly- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540 Supply daily- 4240 -> 4292 -> 4298 -> 4312 Demand weekly- 4130 -> 3921 Demand daily- 4273 -> 4188
QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/7f36vzwva25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=e79268ef4aa2a961783ffdd614855c0d01ec87c7
Now I said yesterday I was VERY bullish on QQQ and that I was looking for 358-361… we ended up coming super close at open with hitting 357.66 but we did come up and retest that 357.09 supply and once again failed to break through and close over that level… we actually have really turned 354.95 supply into a major resistance here with this being the 5th rejection in 6 days at this level…
Now we did put in a new demand at 349.06 today… however, I will say I am VERY bearish on QQQ for Monday…
I would not be surprised at all to see QQQ come back down to at least 351 on Monday… If you look at QQQ objectively since 5/26 it has been holding within a 347.93 to 357.09 range for 10 closes in a row now… this right now is our consolidation period/ range…
QQQ likely could drop down to 350-351 Monday and could possibly put in a new supply at 354.5 area.. if it did that then we absolutely would look for 348-349 to bounce us and look to long it back to 357. However, IF we can retrace to 349-351 and not put in a new supply I would actually be even more bullish and would look for 361.7 demand to be taken out next week.
Now daily DMI is waving up which is bullish and we did hold the daily 8ema today… however, that massive evening doji star bearish reversal candle certainly should result in a drop… daily also broke extreme bull momentum…
QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/0vub7bdwa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=468c5bed6bc49e77f5eebc021727384b98e5ced4
Now on QQQ weekly here this is looking far more bearish… we just put in a double top with back to back dojis with a weekly supply at 354.65. This is our first supply since the first week of May.
Now only that but we also have a weekly DMI wave down forming here on QQQ. I will say though that despite this bearish set up that we have here… QQQ weekly remains in extreme bull momentum (despite the daily losing it) which means the weekly 8ema likely will be support on any retrace… that weekly 8ema should sit somewhere near 340 next week. Impressively QQQ weekly has NOT broken through the 8ema since the first week of may (5 weeks in a row) and we have not closed under the weekly 8ema since the week of March 6th.
As you can see we are working on a yellow rising wedge since the week of December 12th.
For me we have that 330.67 supply to keep an eye on next week… However, that would not only break the weekly 8ema but would also break the 6 month long rising wedge support… I do not think QQQ has seen the weakness and top to do that… likely weekly support will sit at 337.7 at the lowest next week but I will look for 339-340 to be a bounce point.
On the upside if we immediately bounce higher next week we actually could turn this weekly 354.65 supply immediately into a demand which would be incredibly bullish. Upside resistance of the wedge sits at 359.94 and we have a weekly supply at 361.85 to keep an eye on.
QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 330.67 -> 354.65 -> 361.85 Demand- 322.47 -> 316.18
VIX

https://preview.redd.it/1g1n41wwa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=544aa2aba58196017243902170ee9f97fc4fe80f
Even though it looked like the VIX would never recover and was just going to keep falling and falling and falling…. We actually did it… we actually put in a new daily demand (support) on the VIX at 13.62!
This is our first demand the VIX has put in since May 18th…
Fun fact about the VIX and putting in Demands (taking the move from low to high of when VIX puts in a demand till its next supply)… March 6th= VIX +65.6%, SPY -6.5% March 14th= VIX +34.1%, SPY -2.5% March 21st= VIX +16.9%, SPY -2.3% April 4th= VIX +8.1%, SPY -1.42% April 6th= VIX +9%, SPY +0.71% April 18th= VIX +20%, SPY -2.9% May 1st= VIX +37.2%, SPY -3.3% May 11th= VIX +9.6%, SPY -0.6% May 18th= VIX +29.9%, SPY -2.6%
This is becoming my new favorite thing to do… What does this show?
On average over the last 9 times the VIX has put a new demand (support) in it has bounced 25.6% and SPY has fallen -2.38%. There is one time in April though where SPY did randomly push higher despite the VIX pushing up 9%...
But what does this mean? Well this means that if this plays out like normal the VIX will see around $17 and SPY could drop to $421.7 before we put a new supply in on the VIX (I will calculate that out once that happens).
Now thre is always the chance with low daily volatility and daily/ weekly extreme bear momentum that we do not do that and immediately turn around and put a new supply in… but I will say since November there has not been a time we have seen with the supply indicator this low that we have immediately turned around a put a new supply in…
The highest probability is that we see a bounce here on the VIX and drop on SPY… we also broke the 12 day long bear channel today… the next step is for bears to close VIX over the daily 8ema and this should breakout.
Next week with CPI and FOMC truly could be really spicy…
WEEKLY TRADING LOG

https://preview.redd.it/lim9sh9ya25b1.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b9623f764a2b1248dd8a16aae5fc1e87e8751ff
Well I wasn’t supposed to be trading today… but ended up getting home earlier than expected and was able to get some solid trading in today. Today was a refreshing breath of air after getting absolutely wrecked yesterday… today was perfect trading and felt perfect to trade, however, after about 145 I will say that we once again say internals not matching correctly…
Overall I failed to reach my weekly profit goal but on an extremely positive note here I was able to break the curse of Fridays by putting in a green day (even after realizing my tsla loss).
This close out as a nice green week and I am not too upset with the results especially after how brutal yesterday was.
I have now been green for the last 10 weeks in a row which is one week shorter than my longest weekly streak in 2022!
I hope you guys all have a great weekend and I will see you guys next week!
submitted by DaddyDersch to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:39 DaddyDersch All eyes on CPI and FOMC next week… 6-9-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Analysis and Recap

All eyes on CPI and FOMC next week… 6-9-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Weekly Analysis and Recap
So I want to first start this off by clearing a few things up… Wednesday I made a post looking for $400 basically by middle of July… then what happened over night? Well yesterday markets called for a pump so I had to be bullish for today… there is a very different time frame to have on some of these posts… that $400 target is a 30-45dte target… however, I still have overnight and intraweek moves that may inverse that… This market is ruthless and can not make its mind up for more than a minute sometimes…
With that being said I am bearish for Monday… based on todays technicals… we will get to that but lets talk about CPI and FOMC first…
EVENT CALENDER

https://preview.redd.it/ntmsk1cia25b1.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=c37d675d41d991d3551581a606e5ebc2781425c4
CPI/ FOMC

https://preview.redd.it/0i4jq0tia25b1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=128e23e3c44da4369c1dcb320d6d80c59ad9691f
I am waiting on bloomberg terminal numbers right now… hoping to get them this weekend (if anyone has access DM me… if not I gotta wait on one of my other sources)… but the way im seeing it right now is that cleveland fed nowcast and consensus are all pretty much spot on… the biggest thing to note here is that CPI is calling for a print in the 4s… we even if all goes well could see a print in the 3s! that would be wild to be honest… also note for next month nowcast is already calling for a 3.3% CPI print!
So the question is how do we trade this and what is the market going to do? Well I would NOT trade this at all… why? Simple… its been months since we have had a decent reaction that would make the risk to reward of the payout worth it…
Now how will the market react?

https://preview.redd.it/f66jg67ja25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3f0bedea7bd1e0b03d179c0aa00e3343e6d7120
As you can see here the last month things have been very up and down… but as of current time of writing this… the markets see the highest odds of a PAUSE at this meeting next week… now this is where I still think the markets have it wrong… there has been ZERO indication for JPOW about a pause… pretty much every time JPOW himself has actually spoken he has ALWAYS said he is going to do a 25bps hike and that there is NO RATE CUTS this year… now this is really where I think markets have it all wrong…
The markets were pricing in 75bps of cuts by EOY… Impressively… the markets now have the highest odds of NO RATE CUTS by end of year.. I do think the markets finally have this correct… however, while the odds may be correct now…. I do not see the markets reacting correctly…
I do think if JPOW hikes 25bps on Wednesday (which is highly probable in my opinion) that we will see a negative reaction to that… but I do see that as a likely call entry opportunity whenever that sell off stops…
SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/37nzgcoja25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=beb0429c61f63154217a3312012b0791a67bd0a9
Well after putting that 426.6 demand in we have now immediately turned around and put a new supply in at 429.13… however, do you see the issue with it? We are imbalanced.. why? Simply because today we are going to close higher than where the supply is put in… that means markets will need to come back down OR immediately turn around and make a new demand Monday…
One interesting thing is that since pretty much April 26th SPY has not broken through a previous demand after establishing a supply… what do I mean… I mean lets take that 410.2 demand… after markets put that in and put in a new supply (was around 420) the markets held that 420.1 demand and did not close below it… we have been stair stacking (bullishly) new demands since 404 area.
However with 3 supplies here at this 428-430 area now this has become one extremely strong resistance…
SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/dt9tk65ka25b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=e43d31e346f866864d8f1f8bdec87e8afd7705eb
There is actually no changes to the weekly time frame here… we closed over previous supply and did not put in a new supply… DMI remains overbought and SPY remains ready to put in a new supply on any red week…
SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION

https://preview.redd.it/8d4w4cmka25b1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=1602d4493f652ff4a2e3f90a6684dcce9105423b
SPY daily here remains in this black bull channel that it has been in since May 23rd… we also have the bigger broad red/blue bull channel since March 8th…
Now this is a CLASSIC bearish reversal pattern with this evening doji star closure… we also once again failed to close over 430.. We did close higher than the august 16th closure but we did not close over 430 yet again… this would be 4 failed rejections in the last 5 trading days from closing over 430.
I would not be surprised to see price come back down to 426.5 demand (support) or perhaps 428 supply on Monday… however, I do forsee it still being bullish… honestly until this black bull channel is broken and really until we close under the daily 20ema this remains bullish and dips remain call opportunities…
SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION

https://preview.redd.it/ixppty3la25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f87468e9f4069cbf1f940772c7974c3f0245d67
I think this weekly chart clearly shows the overall trend and shows everything the best…
Here you can see since the beginning of march we have been in this blue bull channel. Until SPY breaks under that weekly support (419 for next week) as you can see by the wicks this remains a buy the dip market… we also have a large red/ blue rising wedge that we have been trading within since middle of September… that resistance sits at 436.1 for next week.
SPY WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23 Demand- 411.57 -> 381.74 Support- 428.2 -> 422.1 -> 418.6 Resistance- 430 -> 436.9 -> 444.3
FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/kx0gzspla25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=db649f5b552b3aed3a9e6c4e76ec6582a7ef46a8
Not surprisingly here futures followed suit of SPY and also put in a new supply at 4298. We actually are imbalanced on futures which does not usually happen. So that will be interesting to watch get sorted out over next week.. as of right now futes minimally needs to close under 4299 in order to be balanced.
4312 is the supply and resistance from the august high and we once again failed to close over that level… it is safe to assume for now 4312 is strong resistance.
FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/svdlwnbma25b1.png?width=872&format=png&auto=webp&s=14acae6419a030a8aeb9c1e2fc9b427efa2c2d3d
No changes to futures weekly supply and demand… we are attempting to make 4284 into a support, however, it is not set up to turn it into a demand which would be incredible bullish.
NOTE ON FUTURES- on tradingview (where I primarily chart) the contracts rolled over night and when that happens the charting is always messed up for about a week because there was about a 100pt gap up due to that… there is a way to adjust for contracts but none of my levels are adjusted for that so it would throw everything off… for now I wont be including Futes daily or weekly price action until things normalize some… I will not include support/ resistance either as it is incorrect.
FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS- Supply weekly- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540 Supply daily- 4240 -> 4292 -> 4298 -> 4312 Demand weekly- 4130 -> 3921 Demand daily- 4273 -> 4188
QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/t27jd4uma25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7a420b28f8197059f3661f5c76c13de586309a9
Now I said yesterday I was VERY bullish on QQQ and that I was looking for 358-361… we ended up coming super close at open with hitting 357.66 but we did come up and retest that 357.09 supply and once again failed to break through and close over that level… we actually have really turned 354.95 supply into a major resistance here with this being the 5th rejection in 6 days at this level…
Now we did put in a new demand at 349.06 today… however, I will say I am VERY bearish on QQQ for Monday…
I would not be surprised at all to see QQQ come back down to at least 351 on Monday… If you look at QQQ objectively since 5/26 it has been holding within a 347.93 to 357.09 range for 10 closes in a row now… this right now is our consolidation period/ range…
QQQ likely could drop down to 350-351 Monday and could possibly put in a new supply at 354.5 area.. if it did that then we absolutely would look for 348-349 to bounce us and look to long it back to 357. However, IF we can retrace to 349-351 and not put in a new supply I would actually be even more bullish and would look for 361.7 demand to be taken out next week.
Now daily DMI is waving up which is bullish and we did hold the daily 8ema today… however, that massive evening doji star bearish reversal candle certainly should result in a drop… daily also broke extreme bull momentum…
QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND

https://preview.redd.it/w2cyodena25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=91cb41721eb6ba34f7ce65e253b6559dc20f5cad
Now on QQQ weekly here this is looking far more bearish… we just put in a double top with back to back dojis with a weekly supply at 354.65. This is our first supply since the first week of May.
Now only that but we also have a weekly DMI wave down forming here on QQQ. I will say though that despite this bearish set up that we have here… QQQ weekly remains in extreme bull momentum (despite the daily losing it) which means the weekly 8ema likely will be support on any retrace… that weekly 8ema should sit somewhere near 340 next week. Impressively QQQ weekly has NOT broken through the 8ema since the first week of may (5 weeks in a row) and we have not closed under the weekly 8ema since the week of March 6th.
As you can see we are working on a yellow rising wedge since the week of December 12th.
For me we have that 330.67 supply to keep an eye on next week… However, that would not only break the weekly 8ema but would also break the 6 month long rising wedge support… I do not think QQQ has seen the weakness and top to do that… likely weekly support will sit at 337.7 at the lowest next week but I will look for 339-340 to be a bounce point.
On the upside if we immediately bounce higher next week we actually could turn this weekly 354.65 supply immediately into a demand which would be incredibly bullish. Upside resistance of the wedge sits at 359.94 and we have a weekly supply at 361.85 to keep an eye on.
QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 330.67 -> 354.65 -> 361.85 Demand- 322.47 -> 316.18
VIX

https://preview.redd.it/vpt87ypoa25b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=85982d70d65880ab5b59bef5137b2a007ee4f330
Even though it looked like the VIX would never recover and was just going to keep falling and falling and falling…. We actually did it… we actually put in a new daily demand (support) on the VIX at 13.62!
This is our first demand the VIX has put in since May 18th…
Fun fact about the VIX and putting in Demands (taking the move from low to high of when VIX puts in a demand till its next supply)… March 6th= VIX +65.6%, SPY -6.5% March 14th= VIX +34.1%, SPY -2.5% March 21st= VIX +16.9%, SPY -2.3% April 4th= VIX +8.1%, SPY -1.42% April 6th= VIX +9%, SPY +0.71% April 18th= VIX +20%, SPY -2.9% May 1st= VIX +37.2%, SPY -3.3% May 11th= VIX +9.6%, SPY -0.6% May 18th= VIX +29.9%, SPY -2.6%
This is becoming my new favorite thing to do… What does this show?
On average over the last 9 times the VIX has put a new demand (support) in it has bounced 25.6% and SPY has fallen -2.38%. There is one time in April though where SPY did randomly push higher despite the VIX pushing up 9%...
But what does this mean? Well this means that if this plays out like normal the VIX will see around $17 and SPY could drop to $421.7 before we put a new supply in on the VIX (I will calculate that out once that happens).
Now thre is always the chance with low daily volatility and daily/ weekly extreme bear momentum that we do not do that and immediately turn around and put a new supply in… but I will say since November there has not been a time we have seen with the supply indicator this low that we have immediately turned around a put a new supply in…
The highest probability is that we see a bounce here on the VIX and drop on SPY… we also broke the 12 day long bear channel today… the next step is for bears to close VIX over the daily 8ema and this should breakout.
Next week with CPI and FOMC truly could be really spicy…
WEEKLY TRADING LOG

https://preview.redd.it/qyf6hg9pa25b1.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=db67d531b4556d96212793314679824a4bb124b9
Well I wasn’t supposed to be trading today… but ended up getting home earlier than expected and was able to get some solid trading in today. Today was a refreshing breath of air after getting absolutely wrecked yesterday… today was perfect trading and felt perfect to trade, however, after about 145 I will say that we once again say internals not matching correctly…
Overall I failed to reach my weekly profit goal but on an extremely positive note here I was able to break the curse of Fridays by putting in a green day (even after realizing my tsla loss).
This close out as a nice green week and I am not too upset with the results especially after how brutal yesterday was.
I have now been green for the last 10 weeks in a row which is one week shorter than my longest weekly streak in 2022!
I hope you guys all have a great weekend and I will see you guys next week!
submitted by DaddyDersch to u/DaddyDersch [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:38 AutoModerator [Genkicourses.site] ✔️John Anthony – The Leads Machine ✔️ Full Course Download

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submitted by AutoModerator to GenkiCourses_Cheapest [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:36 Sayomi_Koneko I wasn't ready

TW - suicide / fatality
I'm listening to this episode while at work and Wade's never ending call with 7 transfers reminded me of a time when I worked for a call center taking claims..
One morning I received a call from an elderly woman needing to file a fatality claim. She had mentioned to me that she had filed the claim 2 or 3 times prior and by the end of the claim taking process the reps computer would tell them its the wrong department even though the system had been accepting the claim the entire time. It turned out she had been trying to file a claim on her late husband who had just taken his life via a gunshot to the head. She had to retell this story several times to several people just days to maybe a week after his death. Details of him and how the room looked after his death. I could hear her wanting to break the entire time.
Well, at the end of my call, my system decided it didn't want to take the claim as well. I told the woman that I wasn't going to let her file the claim and to through all that again. I said I would call until I would find the right department, file on her behalf and call her back with the info. I think I had to call 2 or 3 times to get to the right department.
I really wish system's would give the correct information the first time so people wouldn't have to do a run around to get to the correct people
submitted by Sayomi_Koneko to distractible [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:36 Originalgametag Chatgpt story using starfield lore

Just posted but it didn't upload or was taken down. I've seen this done before for a different game but I figured I'd give chat gpt the known starfield lore and ask it to right a first chapter. Tried two different prompts:
User Write the first chapter of a story using this lore: The entirety of Starfield takes place in the Settled Systems, which is a section of the Milky Way about 50 light-years from Earth's solar system. The year is 2330, a little over three hundred years from now. It's not clear when humans began to settle space and form the factions that make up the Settled Systems, but 20 years prior to the start of the game, all was not particularly well.
In 2310, the Freestar Collective and the United Colonies had a massive conflict that came to be known as the Colony Wars. This conflict has been loosely compared to the war between the Imperials and Stormcloaks in Skyrim; although the Colony Wars are in the past, the Settled Systems is still feeling the repercussions. When the game begins, the game world is in a period of tentative peace, but it's probably safe to assume that this won't last for long.
It's unclear what the United Colonies and the Freestar Collective were fighting over, but the Colony Wars are one of the biggest pieces of Starfield lore so far. The world's history will have a huge impact on how characters from different factions interact with each other and in most cases, probably don't trust one another.
ChatGPT Chapter 1: Shadows of the Past
The year was 2330, and the Settled Systems were finally beginning to catch their breath after the devastating Colony Wars that had ravaged the region. In the vast expanse of the Milky Way, about 50 light-years from Earth's solar system, factions had formed and tensions simmered beneath the fragile veneer of peace. The scars of the conflict still ran deep, etched into the very fabric of society.
No one could truly pinpoint the exact cause of the Colony Wars. It was a clash between the Freestar Collective and the United Colonies, two formidable factions vying for control and dominance. Some whispered that it was a battle for resources, while others believed it to be a struggle for ideological supremacy. But in the end, the specifics mattered little to those caught in the crossfire.
The war had been brutal, marked by fierce battles and devastating losses on both sides. Countless lives had been sacrificed, worlds reduced to smoldering ruins. The echoes of that conflict still reverberated through the Settled Systems, a haunting reminder of the cost of unchecked ambition and unbridled aggression.
But now, two decades later, a tentative peace had settled upon the starry expanse. The wounds were healing, though the scars remained. Interstellar trade routes were reopening, and societies were beginning to rebuild their shattered foundations. The threat of open warfare had receded, yet few dared to believe that the peace would endure.
The Settled Systems were a patchwork of worlds, each aligned with one of the factions that had emerged from the chaos of the Colony Wars. The Freestar Collective, a loose alliance of independent colonies and renegades, stood in stark contrast to the United Colonies, a more structured and centralized power. Animosity lingered between these factions, fueled by the memories of bloodshed and betrayal.
It was in this fragile climate that our story begins, on the outskirts of a forgotten settlement on the edge of civilization. The air crackled with tension as the sun set, casting long shadows over the worn buildings and dusty streets. A lone figure stood at the crossroads, his weathered face etched with lines of experience and loss.
Jax Brennigan was a relic of the Colony Wars, a survivor who had witnessed the darkest depths of humanity. He had fought alongside the Freestar Collective, driven by a desire for freedom and the hope of a better future. But the war had changed him, leaving scars that ran far deeper than the physical wounds that marked his body.
As he gazed into the fading light, memories flooded Jax's mind—images of battle, the cries of the fallen, and the bitter taste of defeat. He knew that the peace was fragile, a mere illusion that could shatter at any moment. The factions may have ceased open hostilities, but the distrust and animosity remained.
Jax had spent years trying to find his place in this post-war world, seeking solace in the quiet corners of the Settled Systems. Yet, the shadows of the past continued to haunt him, refusing to let him forget the horrors he had witnessed. He had seen the best and worst of humanity, and he knew that true peace was an elusive dream.
With a heavy sigh, Jax turned his gaze towards the stars, their distant shimmer a reminder of the vast unknown that lay beyond. He knew that his journey was far from over, that destiny still called him to navigate the treacherous currents of the Settled Systems. The factions may never fully trust one another, but perhaps, in the face of the looming unknown, they could find common ground.
As the night sky enveloped him in its embrace, Jax steeled himself for the challenges that lay ahead
User Use that lore to write the first chapter of a book but make the main character a miner who discovered a rare artifact to start the story off.
ChatGPT Chapter 1: The Unearthed Legacy
The year was 2330, and in the Settled Systems, a delicate peace prevailed. The Colony Wars had scarred the region, leaving behind a landscape of distrust and tension. But amidst the remnants of conflict, life continued, and the pursuit of opportunity remained a driving force for many.
In the heart of an asteroid belt, where miners toiled in search of precious resources, a lone figure named Jonas Hartigan chiseled away at the rocky surface. He was a seasoned miner, his rugged hands weathered by years of labor in the unforgiving depths of space. For Jonas, the thrill of discovering something rare and valuable was a distant dream—a whisper carried on the solar winds.
But fate had a way of unveiling its secrets when least expected.
As Jonas swung his pickaxe into the dense asteroid, a resounding crack echoed through the void. He paused, his heart racing with anticipation, as if he had stumbled upon something more than just rock and ore. With meticulous care, he chipped away at the debris, revealing a glimmering metallic surface beneath.
A rush of excitement surged through Jonas's veins as he unveiled the hidden artifact—a small, intricately crafted device, unlike anything he had ever seen. It pulsated with an ethereal blue glow, casting an otherworldly aura upon the mining vessel's dimly lit interior. Its delicate engravings hinted at a forgotten legacy, a tale waiting to be unraveled.
Jonas held the artifact in his hands, feeling its weight and power. He could sense that it held significance beyond its material value. The Colony Wars had left the Settled Systems scarred, but this artifact, he believed, could hold the key to understanding the conflict and the factions that had torn the region apart.
As news of Jonas's discovery spread through the mining colony, whispers of intrigue and curiosity filled the air. Miners and settlers alike gathered around him, their eyes wide with wonder, as he recounted the tale of the artifact's unearthing. The Freestar Collective and the United Colonies, once bitter adversaries, now shared a common interest—the desire to decipher the mysteries held within the artifact.
Representatives from both factions arrived in the mining colony, each seeking to claim the artifact for their own purposes. Jonas found himself caught in the crosshairs of their competing agendas, uncertain whom to trust in this treacherous landscape of politics and power.
He knew that the artifact was more than just a trinket; it was a catalyst, capable of reigniting the dormant tensions that had defined the Colony Wars. The fate of the Settled Systems hung in the balance, and Jonas, an unwitting miner thrust into a world of intrigue and danger, held the key to it all.
As the factions jostled for control, Jonas made a decision—to embark on a journey of discovery, one that would take him deep into the heart of the Settled Systems, where the truths of the past lay hidden. With the artifact clutched tightly in his hand, he vowed to unlock its secrets and unearth the legacy that had shaped their turbulent present.
Amidst the remnants of conflict and the lingering echoes of war, Jonas Hartigan would become a reluctant hero—a miner turned seeker of truth, venturing into the unknown, driven by the hope that the revelations he unearthed would guide the Settled Systems toward a lasting peace.
And so, with determination etched upon his face, Jonas set his sights on the horizon, where starlight mingled with shadows, and the fate of worlds awaited his discovery.
User Write chapter two
ChatGPT Chapter 2: Shadows of Betrayal
The hum of the spacecraft's engines reverberated through the cabin as Jonas sat in the pilot's seat, his grip firm on the artifact that had ignited a fire within him. He had chosen a small, inconspicuous vessel for his journey—a ship that could navigate the labyrinthine reaches of the Settled Systems without drawing unwanted attention.
As the stars streaked past the viewport, Jonas couldn't shake the feeling of unease that clung to him like a shadow. He had become an unwitting pawn in the power struggle between the Freestar Collective and the United Colonies, and he knew that danger lurked in every corner of the vast expanse of space he now traversed.
His destination was a remote outpost on the fringes of the Settled Systems—a place rumored to harbor individuals who had once been intimately involved in the Colony Wars. If anyone could shed light on the artifact and the secrets it held, it would be those who had borne witness to the conflict firsthand.
The outpost came into view, a solitary structure nestled amidst the desolation of a barren moon. As Jonas touched down, his pulse quickened, anticipation mingled with trepidation. He stepped out onto the lunar surface, the crunch of dust beneath his boots a reminder of the isolated world he had entered.
The outpost's interior was dimly lit, its corridors winding and labyrinthine. Conversations in hushed tones filled the air, the occupants casting wary glances at the stranger who had ventured into their midst. It was a motley crew, a collection of individuals scarred by war and defined by their allegiances.
Jonas approached a weathered figure, a man whose eyes carried the weight of untold stories. "I seek knowledge," he began, his voice steady but laced with a hint of vulnerability. "I have something that may hold answers, but I need guidance."
The man regarded him with a mixture of curiosity and caution. "You think you can find answers here? The Settled Systems are a graveyard of secrets, young one."
Jonas nodded, his resolve unwavering. "I have come this far. I am willing to take the risks."
The man studied Jonas for a moment before motioning him to follow. They wound their way through the labyrinth of corridors, arriving at a dimly lit chamber. The room was filled with holo-projectors displaying fragments of history—images of battles, faces of fallen comrades, and the destruction wrought upon once-thriving worlds.
"This is the truth you seek," the man said, his voice heavy with the weight of memory. "The Colony Wars were not simply a clash of factions. They were a clash of ideals, of aspirations, and of the very essence of humanity."
Jonas's eyes scanned the holographic display, the images searing into his mind. The conflicts were brutal, the devastation unimaginable. He saw the Freestar Collective fighting for independence, driven by a desire for freedom from the United Colonies' perceived oppression. The United Colonies, in turn, fought to maintain control, to safeguard their vision of unity and order.
But within the chaos of battle, alliances shifted, betrayals unfolded, and innocents paid the price. The Colony Wars had been a confluence of ambition, greed, and the thirst for power—factors that transcended the superficial divisions of factions.
As Jonas absorbed the truth before him, he realized that the artifact he carried was not merely a key to understanding the past—it was a catalyst for change. It held the potential to bridge the gaps that divided the Settled Systems, to forge a new path forward, away from the shadows of war and mistrust.
submitted by Originalgametag to Starfield [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:35 Userguy99 [WTS] Atom, Microtech Hera S/E, Spyderco Dragonfly, Customized Bugout, Small Sebenza Bundle

Well the transmission on my wife's car finally took the final dive, and we really need to get together a down payment for a car. Not currently looking to trade. Thanks for looking.
https://imgur.com/a/AxOT9w2

TRM Atom w/ textured Ti Scales: This knife is brand new and never used. Just picked it up at blade show directly from TRM, and it has not been used or carried. Unfortunately it's gotta go. Absolutely pristine condition, excellent centering, great action and fit as you can expect from TRM. Asking $380

Benchmade bugout S90v w/ Rockscale critter titanium scales, and aftermarket standoffs to match the scales: This one is also in uncarried and unused condition. It will come in a regular standard bugout box. Asking $270

Customized Spyderco Drangonfly 2: Acid washed K390 blade, heat colored hardware, custom scale dye w/ purple/blue fade. In excellent condition. Some side to side blade play that I can't seem to resolve with pivot tightening, otherwise in excellent condition. Really cool little knife. Asking $90

Microtech Hera Merlot w/ Single edge drop point: In excellent condition. Used and carried very lightly, only a few times. Some minor scratches on the clip, otherwise in perfect condition. Blade is pristine. Asking $300

Small Sebenza 21 Bundle: This is one of the 3 knives I told myself I would absolutely never sell, because it is one of my perfect knives. As such it has been a user. It has been used, but never abused. Comes with 2 separate blade (one drop point, and one insingo), both in s35vn steel. Each blade comes with it's own pivot bushing and washers, so each blade fits the knife absolutely perfectly. You can interchange blades at your discretion, depending on how you're feeling that day. Currently has an MXG deep carry clip installed, but the original clip is included. Also has a full length aluminum geared backspacer that I absolutely love. If this one doesn't sell, I can't say I'll be disappointed. Asking $490



submitted by Userguy99 to Knife_Swap [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:35 Leather-Parsnip-7973 Am i depressed

Im using a throwaway account because i dont want some of my friends seeing this post, but i want to know if im depressed. I cant tell, because its this... cycle. I cant think straight, my memory has just left even though months ago i had a photographic memory. I cant sleep, I cant enjoy games i used to play all day till i fell asleep at the computer, or even function in exams. My teachers have noticed my grades slip, my parents say im just lazy and keep pushing me to "do better" but i genuinely dont have the motivation to do anything anymore. But then, itll all go away. Usually for a day or two, ill forget everything, and be happy, but itll end up with me laying down with my thoughts, and crying myself into the 3 or 4 hrs of sleep i get a night. But there is no reason to crying or sitting moody on my chair all day, it just happens without even having a reason, its not like oklahoma is the worst place to live, i have a decent well off family, i just. cant. My friends have all left me, and ive seen messages of horrible stuff they say about me always wanting more attention and being the center of everything, but i just try to keeep them happy because i know that if i dont, they self harm or other stuff, but im drained. But i cant tell if its depression because surely there has to be something there, looming over me to be that, right? And everyone says i look happy so maybe im just being petty? Please help
Note: No, i am not slidal or anything of that sort or neither do i self harm,
submitted by Leather-Parsnip-7973 to NoStupidQuestions [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:33 CaroylOldersee LadyFingers Location Off of Glenwood

LadyFingers Location Off of Glenwood
Anyone been to the new location recently? Randomly popped in yesterday just to check it out and may go tonight to pick up a sandwich or frozen item. There’s even a little bar area where you can sit or additional seating as well. Love the names to the sandwich’s, personally.
submitted by CaroylOldersee to raleigh [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:33 PlebsLikeUs Songs That Are One Hit Wonders But Which Don’t Have An Interesting Enough Story For One Hit Wonderland?

I was playing the Heardle Decades just now and the result for the 80’s was spoiler The Captain Of Her Heart by Double. I listened to the first few seconds and immediately pegged it as a One Hit Wonder, and so was not surprised when checking their Wikipedia page that it was their only single to chart anywhere except for a few singles that barely cracked the top 100 in the UK, and one song that did weirdly well in Belgium.
Perfect, I thought. A genuine one hit wonder, world wide. But then I read the Wikipedia section on their career and was, disappointed. I know it’s naïve to expect all artists to have a unique and interesting biography, and it’s an especially big trap to fall into considering all of the interesting stories presented in Todd’s videos. But even considering most career arcs, Double’s was boring. They met in different bands. They recorded an EP together, then an album. It had one great song, which charted. They recorded a second album. It didn’t do as well. They broke up.
I know it’s how most careers go, but to me Double’s career still seemed particularly unremarkable. Maybe Todd could make something of that in itself, the same way he did for the Kyper review. But I can’t see it.
And so I was wondering; are there any acts that you’ve come across who are One Hit Wonders but who Todd is absolutely not gonna cover because they just don’t have an interesting story?
submitted by PlebsLikeUs to ToddintheShadow [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:30 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
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